NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 06/19/2025

The Thunder have been dominant out of the gate in this series, establishing early leads that set the tone for their victories. In Game 5, they jumped to a double-digit advantage in the first quarter and never looked back, showing their ability to start fast and put pressure on Indiana immediately.

Sharp money is moving heavily toward OKC despite only 39% of public bets backing them, indicating professional bettors see value in the Thunder. The line movement from -4.5 to -6.5 for the full game suggests growing confidence in Oklahoma City's chances.

Tyrese Haliburton's compromised status is a major factor for the first quarter. After aggravating his calf injury and going scoreless from the field in Game 5, the Pacers' offensive engine may struggle to get into rhythm early, giving the Thunder a window to establish control.

OKC's defense has been particularly disruptive, forcing 20+ turnovers in Game 5 and consistently shutting down Indiana's preferred pace. This defensive intensity typically shows up early as the Thunder implement their game plan.

With the championship within reach, expect the Thunder to come out with maximum urgency rather than easing into the game. The combination of SGA and Jalen Williams, who combined for 71 points in Game 5, should provide the offensive firepower needed to cover this modest 1.5-point first quarter spread.

Oklahoma City has seized momentum in this series, now up 3-2 after a dominant Game 5 performance where they showcased their elite two-way capabilities. Their defense has found the formula to disrupt Indiana's tempo-based attack, forcing 20+ turnovers and converting them into easy transition opportunities.

The betting market is sending strong signals, with sharp money pushing the line from -4.5 to -6.5 despite the public favoring the Pacers. This kind of line movement against public sentiment often indicates professional bettors have identified value on the Thunder.

Tyrese Haliburton's health remains a critical concern for Indiana. After aggravating his calf injury in Game 5 and failing to score from the field, the Pacers' offense loses its primary creator and floor general. Without Haliburton at full strength, Indiana's spacing and ball movement suffer significantly.

The Thunder's star duo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams combined for 71 points in Game 5, showing they're peaking at the perfect time. With championship aspirations on the line, OKC's talent advantage becomes more pronounced in high-leverage moments.

While the Pacers have been strong at home (7-3 this postseason), the Thunder's road record (5-4) suggests they won't be fazed by the hostile environment. Their disciplined approach under coach Mark Daigneault should translate well to a close-out scenario where execution matters most.

Gilgeous-Alexander has been the offensive cornerstone for the Thunder throughout the playoffs, averaging 30.4 points per game as shown in the provided stats. In elimination games, star players typically elevate their performance, suggesting SGA could exceed his already impressive average.

Coming off a dominant Game 5 where he was part of a 71-point duo performance with Jalen Williams, SGA has clearly found his rhythm in this series. His scoring efficiency tends to peak when OKC has momentum, which they certainly have after taking the 3-2 lead.

The Pacers' defense has struggled to contain elite perimeter creators throughout the playoffs. With Tyrese Haliburton compromised defensively due to his calf injury, Indiana may have to rely on less capable defenders against SGA, creating more scoring opportunities.

In close-out games, teams often rely heavily on their best player, and for OKC, that's unquestionably Gilgeous-Alexander. Expect Coach Daigneault to feature SGA prominently in the offensive gameplan, potentially increasing his usage rate even above his normal high levels.

SGA's complete offensive package—mid-range shooting, drives to the basket, and free throw efficiency—makes him a threat to score from all areas of the court. Against a Pacers team that will be desperate but potentially disorganized defensively, he should find plenty of scoring opportunities throughout the game.