NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 06/22/2025

Game 7 between the Pacers and Thunder sets up perfectly for the over to hit tonight. Oklahoma City's offense transforms at home, jumping from 107.2 points on the road to a blistering 121.9 points in front of their fans this postseason.

The Thunder have also demonstrated their offensive capabilities against Indiana at home this season, scoring 120+ points in three of their four meetings. After struggling from deep in Game 6 (8-for-30), expect a significant bounce-back with their 3-point shooting improving by 7.6% at home during these playoffs.

Indiana's road offense remains potent despite the pressure, dropping just 1.5 points compared to their home performances this postseason. Tyrese Haliburton showed encouraging signs in Game 6 after injury concerns, suggesting he's ready to lead the Pacers' attack.

This series has maintained a fast pace throughout, ranking 3rd among all postseason matchups. Both teams will likely seek transition opportunities to ease the scoring burden, even with championship stakes on the line.

With Oklahoma City's home shooting advantage and the Pacers' consistent road scoring, this total of 215 offers solid value based on the series trends and both teams' offensive profiles. The return to familiar surroundings should help the Thunder's shooters regain their touch.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the offensive centerpiece for Oklahoma City, averaging exactly 30 points throughout the playoffs. In this decisive Game 7 at home, expect the Thunder to lean heavily on their superstar guard.

The stats show SGA has been consistent with his scoring output, putting up 659 points across 22 playoff games. With everything on the line, the Thunder will ensure their best scorer gets plenty of opportunities.

Indiana has struggled to contain elite guards throughout the postseason, and Gilgeous-Alexander's combination of mid-range scoring and ability to get to the free-throw line makes him particularly difficult to defend.

Home court advantage typically benefits star scorers in Game 7 scenarios, both from a comfort standpoint and favorable whistles. SGA's 36.8 minutes per game shows the Thunder rely on him heavily in crucial moments.

The elimination-game pressure often leads to star players taking control, and as Oklahoma City's clear first option, Gilgeous-Alexander should exceed his season average in this winner-take-all scenario.

Oklahoma City has demonstrated significant home court advantage throughout the playoffs, with their offensive production jumping dramatically when playing in their arena. This Game 7 scenario maximizes that edge.

The Thunder's defensive intensity should ramp up for this championship-deciding contest, especially after allowing Indiana to force this final game. Elite defenders like Luguentz Dort and Alex Caruso will be crucial in disrupting the Pacers' offensive flow.

Jalen Williams has emerged as a legitimate secondary scoring threat alongside SGA, averaging 21.5 points in the playoffs. His ability to create his own shot will be pivotal in helping the Thunder pull away.

The Pacers' reliance on Tyrese Haliburton, who's been dealing with health concerns, creates vulnerability. If the Thunder can limit his effectiveness, Indiana lacks the star power to compensate against Oklahoma City's balanced attack.

Historical trends favor home teams in Game 7s, with the combination of crowd energy and familiar surroundings typically worth several points. The Thunder's youth and athleticism should translate to a strong closing performance to secure the championship.