The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers head to a decisive Game 7 showdown at Paycom Center with the NBA Finals hanging in the balance after Indiana's dominant 108-91 victory in Game 6.
While the top-seeded Thunder (68-14) maintain home-court advantage where they've gone 35-6 this season, the resilient Pacers have covered the spread in 15 of their last 20 games and appear to match up well against OKC.
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaging 30.9 points across his last 10 games for the Thunder and the Pacers' balanced attack led by Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin finding rhythm, this winner-take-all finale promises high stakes basketball at its finest.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers prediction: who will win?
For today's Oklahoma City Thunder vs Indiana Pacers matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 50.67% chance of defeating the Pacers.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 50.67% win probability
- League-leading record (68-14, best in the Western Conference)
- Elite defensive efficiency (allowing only 107.6 points per game)
- Outstanding recent form (4-1 in last five games, with a WWWWL record)
Indiana Pacers: 49.33% win probability
- Defensive vulnerability (allowing 115.1 points per game, higher than OKC)
- Road performance concerns (likely facing challenges at Western Conference leaders)
- Statistical disadvantage (50-32 record compared to Thunder's 68-14 mark, despite solid recent form)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Indiana Pacers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers preview
The Thunder and Pacers have battled to a dramatic Game 7 in the NBA Finals, with the series deadlocked at 3-3 following Indiana's convincing 108-91 victory at home in Game 6.
While OKC's regular season dominance (68-14) makes them 7.5-point favorites on their home court, Indiana has been consistently beating the spread, covering the +7.5 line in 15 of their last 20 games.
Obi Toppin emerged as an X-factor for Indiana in Game 6, dropping 20 points and grabbing 6 rebounds in just 23 minutes of action, while the Pacers' defense forced an uncharacteristic 21 turnovers from the typically disciplined Thunder.
Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been magnificent throughout the series, averaging nearly 31 points over his last 10 games, but Oklahoma City's inability to cover the spread against Indiana (failing to cover -7.5 in 7 of their last 10 matchups) suggests this finale could be closer than the oddsmakers predict.
The contrast in styles will be fascinating to watch — Indiana's high-scoring offense (117.4 PPG) against Oklahoma City's stifling defense (ranked 3rd in points allowed) — with championship glory hanging in the balance at Paycom Center.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers form
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers head to head
Oklahoma City Thunder
67%
Indiana Pacers
33%
Jun 20, 2025
Indiana Pacers
108 : 91
Oklahoma City Thunder
Jun 17, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
120 : 109
Indiana Pacers
Jun 14, 2025
Indiana Pacers
104 : 111
Oklahoma City Thunder
Jun 12, 2025
Indiana Pacers
116 : 107
Oklahoma City Thunder
Jun 9, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
123 : 107
Indiana Pacers
Jun 6, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
110 : 111
Indiana Pacers
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