The Cleveland Guardians (51-50) look to extend their four-game winning streak as they host the struggling Baltimore Orioles (44-57) in Thursday's series finale at Progressive Field.
Logan Allen takes the mound for Cleveland against veteran Charlie Morton, with the Guardians' consistent pitching staff (3.94 ERA) facing an Orioles lineup that ranks near the bottom against left-handed pitching this season.
With the Guardians winning seven of their last eight and Baltimore dropping seven of eight, momentum clearly favors the home team in this afternoon matchup.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles prediction: who will win?
For today's Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles matchup, our predictive model gives the Guardians a 69% chance of defeating the Orioles.
Cleveland Guardians: 69% win probability
- Dominant home field advantage (15-5 home record over last 20 games)
- Superior starting pitching (3.42 team ERA, compared to Baltimore's 4.18)
- Excellent run production against right-handed pitching (averaging 5.3 runs per game vs RHP)
Baltimore Orioles: 31% win probability
- Poor road performance (3-7 in last 10 road games)
- Struggling bullpen (5.37 ERA in last 14 days, 27th in MLB)
- Offensive slump against left-handed pitching (.221 team average vs LHP over last 30 days)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Cleveland Guardians | Baltimore Orioles | |
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| Moneyline |
Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles preview
The surging Guardians look to continue their hot streak as they host a struggling Orioles squad at Progressive Field on Thursday afternoon.
Cleveland has won four straight and seven of their last eight, while Baltimore has dropped three in a row and seven of eight, creating a stark momentum contrast between these AL opponents.
Logan Allen takes the mound for the Guardians sporting a solid 4.06 ERA and an impressive 3-1 record against the O's in recent matchups.
Baltimore counters with veteran Charlie Morton, who despite his overall struggles this season (5.58 ERA), has historically handled Cleveland well with a 2.76 ERA in his last five starts against them.
The Orioles' offensive woes against left-handed pitching could prove decisive—they rank near the bottom of MLB in key metrics versus southpaws, which doesn't bode well against the consistent Allen.
With Cleveland's lineup finally finding its rhythm behind Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan, this afternoon matchup shapes up as another challenging test for a Baltimore team desperately searching for answers.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles form
Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles head to head
Cleveland Guardians
50%
Baltimore Orioles
50%
Jul 23, 2025
Cleveland Guardians
3 : 2
Baltimore Orioles
Jul 22, 2025
Cleveland Guardians
6 : 3
Baltimore Orioles
Jul 21, 2025
Cleveland Guardians
10 : 5
Baltimore Orioles
Apr 17, 2025
Baltimore Orioles
6 : 2
Cleveland Guardians
Apr 16, 2025
Baltimore Orioles
9 : 1
Cleveland Guardians
Apr 15, 2025
Baltimore Orioles
3 : 6
Cleveland Guardians
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