The Detroit Tigers' once-comfortable AL Central lead is rapidly shrinking as they enter Thursday's clash with the Toronto Blue Jays at Comerica Park on an alarming nine-losses-in-ten-games skid.
Toronto brings momentum from winning five of their last six, including taking two of three from the Yankees, with their potent offense ranking third in MLB for hits this season.
The pitching matchup features Reese Olson (4-3, 2.71 ERA) against Eric Lauer (5-2, 2.80 ERA) in what shapes up as a compelling battle between two division leaders heading in opposite directions.
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays matchup, our predictive model gives the Jays a 58.5% chance of defeating the Tigers.
Toronto Blue Jays: 58.5% win probability
- Strong road performance (Winning 54% of away games this season)
- Effective pitching rotation (3.82 team ERA, 6th best in MLB)
- Powerful offense (Averaging 4.8 runs per game in their last 15 contests)
Detroit Tigers: 41.5% win probability
- Struggles against right-handed pitching (Batting just .228 vs RHP)
- Home field disadvantage (Just 19-28 at Comerica Park this season)
- Bullpen inconsistency (5.12 ERA in high-leverage situations)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Detroit Tigers | Toronto Blue Jays | |
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| Moneyline |
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays preview
The Blue Jays head to Comerica Park riding a wave of momentum after winning five of their last six games, including a crucial series victory against the Yankees that strengthened their hold atop the AL East standings.
Detroit, meanwhile, finds itself in a puzzling tailspin having dropped nine of their last ten contests despite still clinging to first place in the AL Central.
The pitching matchup features Eric Lauer (5-2, 2.80 ERA) against Reese Olson (4-3, 2.71 ERA) in what shapes up as a compelling duel between two starters who've been remarkably stingy in recent outings.
Toronto's balanced attack, led by Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., ranks among baseball's most productive with the third-most hits in the majors and the second-best on-base percentage.
The Tigers' Riley Greene has been a bright spot during their slide, already amassing 25 home runs and 79 RBIs while anchoring a lineup that's suddenly gone cold at the plate.
This series opener presents a fascinating contrast: a Blue Jays squad surging on the road against a Tigers team that, despite recent struggles, has been nearly unbeatable at home with a stellar 32-18 record at Comerica Park.
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays form
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays head to head
Detroit Tigers
67%
Toronto Blue Jays
33%
May 18, 2025
Toronto Blue Jays
2 : 3
Detroit Tigers
May 17, 2025
Toronto Blue Jays
2 : 1
Detroit Tigers
May 16, 2025
Toronto Blue Jays
4 : 5
Detroit Tigers
Mar 8, 2025
Toronto Blue Jays
5 : 0
Detroit Tigers
Mar 3, 2025
Detroit Tigers
3 : 13
Toronto Blue Jays
Feb 28, 2025
Toronto Blue Jays
10 : 7
Detroit Tigers
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