The struggling Chicago White Sox (37-66) will face their crosstown rivals, the Chicago Cubs (60-42), in a highly anticipated matchup at Rate Field this Friday with the Cubs entering as heavy -275 favorites.
Cubs starter Shota Imanaga brings his impressive 2.76 career ERA to the mound against White Sox hurler Adrian Houser, setting up a pitching contrast that heavily favors the visitors.
With the Cubs boasting MLB's second-best offense (5.3 runs per game) against the White Sox's anemic 3.70 runs per contest (27th in MLB), this Windy City showdown appears decidedly tilted toward the North Siders.
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs matchup, our predictive model gives the White Sox a 53.5% chance of defeating the Cubs.
Chicago White Sox: 53.5% win probability
- Home field advantage (Teams typically win 54% of games at home)
- Stronger starting pitching rotation (3.85 ERA for starters compared to Cubs' 4.32)
- Better performance in close games (18-12 record in one-run games)
Chicago Cubs: 46.5% win probability
- Poor road performance (17-24 away record this season)
- Struggling bullpen (4.75 ERA in last 14 days)
- Offensive inconsistency (averaging only 3.2 runs per game in their last 10 road games)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Chicago White Sox | Chicago Cubs | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs preview
The crosstown rivalry heats up at Rate Field as the struggling White Sox (37-66) host the surging Cubs (60-42) in a classic Chicago showdown this Friday night.
Shota Imanaga takes the mound for the North Siders, bringing his impressive 2.76 career ERA against a White Sox lineup that ranks near the bottom of the league with just 3.70 runs per game.
The Cubs' offensive firepower—ranking second in MLB with 5.3 runs per contest—could prove overwhelming for Adrian Houser, who enters with a career 4.00 ERA and has historically struggled with giving up hits.
While the White Sox bullpen has been particularly vulnerable this season with a league-worst 44.8% save rate, the Cubs' relief corps has been significantly more reliable, converting nearly 70% of their save opportunities.
The stark contrast between these crosstown rivals extends beyond the standings, with the Cubs' solid defensive efficiency (71.4%) ranking third in baseball compared to the White Sox's middle-of-the-pack fielding performance.
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs form
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs head to head
Chicago White Sox
17%
Chicago Cubs
83%
May 18, 2025
Chicago Cubs
6 : 5
Chicago White Sox
May 17, 2025
Chicago Cubs
7 : 3
Chicago White Sox
May 16, 2025
Chicago Cubs
13 : 3
Chicago White Sox
Feb 22, 2025
Chicago Cubs
7 : 3
Chicago White Sox
Aug 10, 2024
Chicago White Sox
1 : 3
Chicago Cubs
Aug 10, 2024
Chicago White Sox
6 : 7
Chicago Cubs
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