The Cincinnati Reds (53-50) and Tampa Bay Rays (53-50) square off Friday night at Great American Ball Park, with both teams desperately needing a series win to bolster their identical Wild Card hopes.
Tampa Bay enters the matchup reeling after dropping two of three to the last-place White Sox, while Cincinnati looks to bounce back from a disappointing series loss in Washington.
The pitching matchup features Zack Littell (3.53 ERA) for the Rays against Nick Martinez (4.73 ERA) for the Reds, with Martinez having led Cincinnati to wins in four of his last five starts.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays matchup, our predictive model gives the Reds a 69.75% chance of defeating the Rays.
Cincinnati Reds: 69.75% win probability
- Home field advantage at Great American Ball Park (supporting their 69.75% win probability)
- Strong batting lineup that's expected to capitalize against Tampa's pitching (based on season-long offensive metrics)
- Recent momentum heading into this interleague matchup (demonstrating consistent performance in July)
Tampa Bay Rays: 30.25% win probability
- Road game struggles against National League opponents (contributing to their 30.25% win probability)
- Pitching rotation issues that have plagued recent away series (indicated by declining performance metrics)
- Offensive production drops when facing NL pitching strategies (shown by their cross-league statistics this season)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Cincinnati Reds | Tampa Bay Rays | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays preview
The Rays and Reds find themselves at identical 53-50 records as they open this rare interleague matchup at Great American Ball Park, with both clubs desperate to gain ground in their respective Wild Card races.
Tampa Bay enters on shaky footing after dropping two of three to the struggling White Sox, while Cincinnati is looking to rebound from a disappointing series loss in Washington.
Zack Littell takes the mound for the Rays sporting a solid 3.53 ERA with three wins in his last four starts, squaring off against Cincinnati's Nick Martinez, who's been inconsistent but effective lately with the Reds winning four of his last five outings.
Tampa Bay's power-hitting rookie Junior Caminero (26 HR, 68 RBI) continues to shine in the heart of the order alongside veteran Yandy Diaz, though they'll be missing Brandon Lowe's bat due to a foot injury.
The Reds counter with dynamic shortstop Elly De La Cruz, whose combination of power (18 HR) and speed (27 stolen bases) makes him one of the most electrifying players in baseball.
Great American Ball Park has been kind to the home team this season with Cincinnati posting a 28-22 record in their hitter-friendly confines, potentially setting the stage for a tight contest between two evenly-matched playoff hopefuls.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays form
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays head to head
Cincinnati Reds
33%
Tampa Bay Rays
67%
Jul 28, 2024
Tampa Bay Rays
2 : 1
Cincinnati Reds
Jul 27, 2024
Tampa Bay Rays
4 : 0
Cincinnati Reds
Jul 26, 2024
Tampa Bay Rays
2 : 3
Cincinnati Reds
Apr 19, 2023
Cincinnati Reds
0 : 8
Tampa Bay Rays
Apr 18, 2023
Cincinnati Reds
0 : 10
Tampa Bay Rays
Apr 17, 2023
Cincinnati Reds
8 : 1
Tampa Bay Rays
Betting on the MLB?
Sporting Post is your trusted hub for MLB betting coverage. We break down expert MLB predictions and deliver today’s MLB best bets with clear, data-driven analysis. Want secure and reliable options? Explore our top picks for MLB betting sites.
Share this post
Related
