The Minnesota Twins (-275) will look to leverage their home-field advantage against the struggling Washington Nationals (+220) in Friday's interleague matchup at Target Field.
With Washington's pitching staff holding the league's 28th-ranked ERA (5.20) and Minnesota's superior bullpen efficiency, the matchup heavily favors the home team despite their below-.500 record.
All eyes will be on the pitching duel between the Nationals' MacKenzie Gore and the Twins' rookie Zebby Matthews, whose contrasting career numbers could be the decisive factor in this cross-conference showdown.
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals matchup, our predictive model gives the Nationals a 57% chance of defeating the Twins.
Washington Nationals: 57% win probability
- Strong road performance (Winning 57% of games away from home)
- Consistent offensive production (Averaging 4.8 runs per game in their last 10 outings)
- Superior bullpen efficiency (3.65 ERA from relievers over the last month)
Minnesota Twins: 43% win probability
- Struggling against National League opponents (3-7 in last 10 interleague games)
- Home field disadvantage (Only winning 39% of games at Target Field this season)
- Batting slump (Team batting average of .238 in last two weeks)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Minnesota Twins | Washington Nationals | |
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| Moneyline |
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals preview
The Minnesota Twins will look to leverage their home-field advantage at Target Field when they host the struggling Washington Nationals in Friday's interleague matchup.
With the Twins installed as heavy -275 favorites, all eyes will be on the pitching duel between Washington's MacKenzie Gore and Minnesota's rookie Zebby Matthews, who has struggled mightily with a 6.58 ERA in his young career.
The Nationals' offensive woes continue to plague them as they sit middle-of-the-pack with 4.3 runs per game, while their pitching staff ranks near the bottom of MLB with a concerning 5.20 ERA.
Minnesota hasn't exactly set the world on fire this season either, sporting a disappointing 49-53 record despite decent offensive production and a more respectable 4.17 team ERA.
Target Field could witness some fireworks despite the pitching matchup, as both teams have shown vulnerability on the mound – Washington having surrendered 121 homers while Minnesota has given up 111 round-trippers this season.
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals form
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals head to head
Minnesota Twins
67%
Washington Nationals
33%
May 22, 2024
Washington Nationals
2 : 3
Minnesota Twins
May 21, 2024
Washington Nationals
0 : 10
Minnesota Twins
May 20, 2024
Washington Nationals
12 : 3
Minnesota Twins
Mar 21, 2024
Washington Nationals
9 : 8
Minnesota Twins
Mar 10, 2024
Minnesota Twins
3 : 7
Washington Nationals
Apr 23, 2023
Minnesota Twins
3 : 1
Washington Nationals
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