The New York Mets (59-44) head to Oracle Park to face the San Francisco Giants (54-49) in a compelling Friday night matchup featuring pitchers Clay Holmes against Logan Webb.
Despite the Mets boasting MLB's third-best team ERA at 3.57, our predictive models give the home-standing Giants a slight edge with a 53% win probability.
The betting markets have shifted significantly from early lines, with the Giants now favored at -1.5 despite New York's impressive pitching staff that has struck out 881 batters this season.
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets matchup, our predictive model gives the Mets a 61% chance of defeating the Giants.
New York Mets: 61% win probability
- Strong road performance (Team has demonstrated consistent ability to win away from home)
- Dominant pitching staff (Leading the league in strikeouts and opponent batting average)
- Clutch hitting with runners in scoring position (Batting .287 in RISP situations, 3rd best in MLB)
San Francisco Giants: 39% win probability
- Struggling offense at home (Averaging only 3.2 runs per game at Oracle Park)
- Bullpen inconsistency (5.12 ERA in high-leverage situations, 4th worst in MLB)
- Poor defensive efficiency (25 errors in last 30 games, leading to 18 unearned runs)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| San Francisco Giants | New York Mets | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets preview
The Mets bring their formidable pitching staff, ranked third in MLB with a 3.57 ERA, to Oracle Park for a compelling Friday night showdown against Logan Webb and the Giants.
Clay Holmes will take the mound for New York as they look to capitalize on their 59-44 record against a Giants team that's been fighting to stay in playoff contention at 54-49.
The Giants' home field advantage could prove significant as they aim to counter a Mets offense that's tallied 130 home runs this season while posting a respectable .242 team batting average.
Webb's career 3.38 ERA and impressive 8.6 hits allowed per nine innings will be tested by a New York lineup that's proven capable of producing in clutch situations this season.
Both bullpens have shown similar efficiency with save percentages hovering around 65%, setting up what could be a tightly contested late-game battle in San Francisco.
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets form
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets head to head
San Francisco Giants
67%
New York Mets
33%
May 26, 2024
New York Mets
4 : 3
San Francisco Giants
May 25, 2024
New York Mets
2 : 7
San Francisco Giants
May 24, 2024
New York Mets
7 : 8
San Francisco Giants
Apr 24, 2024
San Francisco Giants
2 : 8
New York Mets
Apr 24, 2024
San Francisco Giants
5 : 1
New York Mets
Apr 23, 2024
San Francisco Giants
5 : 2
New York Mets
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