The San Diego Padres look to bounce back from Thursday's 9-7 loss as they face the St. Louis Cardinals in game two of their series at Busch Stadium on Friday night.
Nick Pivetta, who has surrendered just two earned runs across his last five starts, gives the Padres a significant edge over Miles Mikolas, who has struggled with a 5.20 ERA and allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last four outings.
Despite San Diego's road woes (24-30 away from home), their strong betting trends at Busch Stadium suggest they'll halt their three-game skid against a Cardinals team that has lost five of their last seven contests.
St.Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres prediction: who will win?
For tonight's St.Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres matchup, our predictive model gives the Padres a 66% chance of defeating the Cardinals.
San Diego Padres: 66% win probability
- Powerful road offense (averaging 5.2 runs per game away from home)
- Superior pitching rotation (3.75 team ERA, 4th best in National League)
- Excellent defensive efficiency (MLB-best .986 fielding percentage)
St.Louis Cardinals: 34% win probability
- Struggling home record (12-18 at Busch Stadium this season)
- Weak bullpen performance (5.21 ERA in high-leverage situations)
- Poor offensive production with runners in scoring position (.223 average, bottom 5 in MLB)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| St.Louis Cardinals | San Diego Padres | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
St.Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres preview
The Padres will look to halt their three-game skid when they visit Busch Stadium after dropping Thursday's series opener 9-7 despite Manny Machado's three-hit, two-RBI performance.
San Diego sends red-hot Nick Pivetta (10-2, 2.81 ERA) to the mound, who has remarkably allowed just two earned runs across his last five starts.
The Cardinals counter with the struggling Miles Mikolas (5-7, 5.20 ERA), who has been tagged for five or more earned runs in three of his last four outings.
Though St. Louis boasts a strong 30-20 home record compared to San Diego's 24-30 road mark, the Cardinals have lost five of their last seven contests overall.
Wilson Contreras remains the offensive catalyst for St. Louis after his impressive 2-for-3, four-RBI night in Thursday's victory, while Machado continues to lead the Padres with 19 homers and 63 RBIs this season.
St.Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres form
St.Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres head to head
St.Louis Cardinals
50%
San Diego Padres
50%
Jul 24, 2025
St.Louis Cardinals
9 : 7
San Diego Padres
Aug 29, 2024
St.Louis Cardinals
4 : 1
San Diego Padres
Aug 28, 2024
St.Louis Cardinals
4 : 3
San Diego Padres
Aug 27, 2024
St.Louis Cardinals
5 : 7
San Diego Padres
Aug 26, 2024
St.Louis Cardinals
4 : 7
San Diego Padres
Apr 3, 2024
San Diego Padres
3 : 2
St.Louis Cardinals
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