The Chicago Cubs (60-43) aim to bounce back from a rare lopsided defeat when they face crosstown rivals Chicago White Sox (38-66) at Rate Field on Saturday night, with Cubs starter Cade Horton looking to build on his recent strong form against a White Sox team that surprisingly snapped an eight-game losing streak in the series with a 12-5 win in Friday's opener.
The North Siders bring MLB's second-ranked offense averaging 5.3 runs per game into the matchup, led by Pete Crow-Armstrong's 27 home runs, while the resurgent White Sox counter with Aaron Civale on the mound as they seek to continue a surprising offensive surge that has produced 6.3 runs per game over their last ten contests.
With the Cubs still firmly in the NL Central race just one game behind Milwaukee, and the White Sox showing unexpected fight despite their last-place standing, this crosstown clash has suddenly become much more intriguing than their records might suggest.
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs matchup, our predictive model gives the Cubs a 66% chance of defeating the White Sox.
Chicago Cubs: 66% win probability
- Superior offensive production (Leading the NL Central in runs scored)
- Dominant starting rotation (4.05 team ERA, top 5 in the National League)
- Road game advantage (16-9 record in away games this season)
Chicago White Sox: 34% win probability
- Struggling home record (11-22 at Guaranteed Rate Field)
- Bullpen inconsistency (5.62 relief ERA, worst in American League)
- Batting slump (Team .221 average over last 15 games)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Chicago White Sox | Chicago Cubs | |
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Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs preview
The crosstown rivalry heats up again at Rate Field as the White Sox look to build on their surprising 12-5 victory that snapped an eight-game losing streak against their North Side neighbors.
The Cubs (60-43) remain in striking distance of the NL Central lead despite dropping four of their last five, with their potent offense—led by Pete Crow-Armstrong's 27 homers—still ranking among MLB's elite in most offensive categories.
Meanwhile, the resurgent White Sox (38-66) have quietly won six of their last seven games, with rookie Edgar Quero coming off a four-hit performance and Colson Montgomery riding a three-game homer streak.
Saturday's pitching matchup features promising 23-year-old Cubs right-hander Cade Horton (3-3, 4.04 ERA) fresh off 5.2 shutout innings against Boston, squaring off against Aaron Civale (2-6, 4.76 ERA), who has found his rhythm with just three earned runs allowed over his last two starts.
The contrast couldn't be starker between these crosstown rivals—one battling for playoff position, the other playing with newfound freedom—yet Friday's result showed the unpredictable nature of this Chicago showdown.
With the Cubs' disciplined lineup (third in homers, fifth-fewest strikeouts) facing a White Sox squad that's averaged 6.3 runs over their last ten contests, Rate Field could be in for another high-scoring affair under the Saturday night lights.
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs form
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs head to head
Chicago White Sox
17%
Chicago Cubs
83%
Jul 25, 2025
Chicago White Sox
12 : 5
Chicago Cubs
May 18, 2025
Chicago Cubs
6 : 5
Chicago White Sox
May 17, 2025
Chicago Cubs
7 : 3
Chicago White Sox
May 16, 2025
Chicago Cubs
13 : 3
Chicago White Sox
Feb 22, 2025
Chicago Cubs
7 : 3
Chicago White Sox
Aug 10, 2024
Chicago White Sox
1 : 3
Chicago Cubs
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