The Cincinnati Reds (54-50) look to extend their impressive home winning streak as they host the Tampa Bay Rays (53-51) at Great American Ball Park on Saturday, with Andrew Abbott (8-1, 2.13 ERA) squaring off against Ryan Pepiot (6-8, 3.59 ERA).
Cincinnati enters as slight favorites (-128) on the back of Abbott's stellar home performance (1.98 ERA in 50 innings), while the Rays struggle on the road having lost seven of their last eight away games.
This pitching duel could prove decisive as the Reds have won seven of their last eight home games against American League opponents with winning records, setting the stage for a compelling matchup.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays matchup, our predictive model gives the Reds a 72.5% chance of defeating the Rays.
Cincinnati Reds: 72.5% win probability
- Home field advantage at Great American Ball Park (Teams typically win 54% of home games in MLB)
- Strong offensive production (Reds have averaged 4.8 runs per game in their last 10 home contests)
- Excellent bullpen performance (3.21 ERA from relievers over the last two weeks)
Tampa Bay Rays: 27.5% win probability
- Poor road performance (Tampa Bay is 12-23 in away games this season)
- Struggling offense against left-handed pitching (Batting just .214 against LHP)
- Injury concerns in starting rotation (Three regular starters currently on IL)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Cincinnati Reds | Tampa Bay Rays | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays preview
The Cincinnati Reds look to continue their hot streak at Great American Ball Park, where they've won seven of their last eight against American League opponents with winning records, as they host the Tampa Bay Rays in a compelling interleague matchup.
Andrew Abbott has been nothing short of spectacular for Cincinnati, sporting a pristine 8-1 record with a dazzling 2.13 ERA overall and an even more impressive 1.98 ERA in the comfort of home.
The Rays counter with Ryan Pepiot, who despite solid personal numbers (6-8, 3.59 ERA) has watched Tampa Bay drop his last three starts due to anemic run support.
Elly De La Cruz remains the catalyst for the Reds' offense with 112 hits and 65 RBI, continuing his remarkable trend of multi-hit games against AL East visitors.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is struggling on the road with seven losses in their last eight away games, though they've historically performed well when visiting National League teams with winning records.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays form
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays head to head
Cincinnati Reds
33%
Tampa Bay Rays
67%
Jul 25, 2025
Cincinnati Reds
7 : 2
Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 28, 2024
Tampa Bay Rays
2 : 1
Cincinnati Reds
Jul 27, 2024
Tampa Bay Rays
4 : 0
Cincinnati Reds
Jul 26, 2024
Tampa Bay Rays
2 : 3
Cincinnati Reds
Apr 19, 2023
Cincinnati Reds
0 : 8
Tampa Bay Rays
Apr 18, 2023
Cincinnati Reds
0 : 10
Tampa Bay Rays
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