The Toronto Blue Jays (62-42) bring their red-hot seven-game winning streak to Comerica Park where they'll face a struggling Detroit Tigers (60-45) squad that has dropped 11 of their last 12 contests.
The pitching matchup features Kevin Gausman (7-7, 4.01 ERA) against Detroit's ace Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.19 ERA), setting up an intriguing battle between Toronto's surging offense and one of the league's most dominant starters.
Despite Skubal's dominance on the mound, the Tigers' recent tailspin has made Toronto an appealing underdog play as they look to continue their dominance in this series after taking the first two games.
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays matchup, our predictive model gives the Jays a 52.5% chance of defeating the Tigers.
Toronto Blue Jays: 52.5% win probability
- Strong road performance (Won 6 of last 8 away games)
- Effective pitching rotation (3.78 team ERA, 7th in MLB)
- Power hitting advantage (Leading AL with 22 home runs in July)
Detroit Tigers: 47.5% win probability
- Struggling offense (Averaging just 3.2 runs per game in last 10)
- Bullpen inconsistency (5.12 ERA in high-leverage situations)
- Poor performance against AL East teams (4-11 record this season)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Detroit Tigers | Toronto Blue Jays | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays preview
The Blue Jays arrive at Comerica Park riding a scorching hot streak, having won seven of their last eight games to claim the AL East lead, while the Tigers find themselves in a perplexing free fall, dropping 11 of their last 12 despite still clinging to the top spot in the AL Central.
Saturday's pitching matchup features a compelling contrast between Toronto's Kevin Gausman (7-7, 4.01 ERA) and Detroit's ace Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.19 ERA), who has established himself as one of the league's elite starters this season.
Spencer Torkelson has been a bright spot for the struggling Tigers, having homered in each of Detroit's last three home games against Toronto, while the Blue Jays' offense has been relentless during their current run, putting up 17 runs in the first two games of this series.
Though Detroit typically thrives at Comerica Park (32-20 home record), they've shown alarming vulnerability lately, failing to cover the run line in their last ten games following a previous day's action.
The Blue Jays have been ruthless as underdogs, winning their last 12 games when playing with that designation on consecutive days, suggesting they might have the mental edge despite Skubal's dominance on the mound.
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays form
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays head to head
Detroit Tigers
50%
Toronto Blue Jays
50%
Jul 25, 2025
Detroit Tigers
2 : 6
Toronto Blue Jays
Jul 24, 2025
Detroit Tigers
4 : 11
Toronto Blue Jays
May 18, 2025
Toronto Blue Jays
2 : 3
Detroit Tigers
May 17, 2025
Toronto Blue Jays
2 : 1
Detroit Tigers
May 16, 2025
Toronto Blue Jays
4 : 5
Detroit Tigers
Mar 8, 2025
Toronto Blue Jays
5 : 0
Detroit Tigers
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