The Milwaukee Brewers (61-42) look to bounce back after Friday's loss when they host the surging Miami Marlins (49-52) in a compelling National League matchup at American Family Field on Saturday night.
Milwaukee has been red-hot lately, winning 13 of their last 16 games to maintain their grip atop the NL Central, while Miami has quietly climbed back into wild card contention by winning seven of their last nine.
The pitching matchup features Jose Quintana (7-3, 3.49 ERA) for the Brewers against Janson Junk (4-2, 3.09 ERA) for the Marlins, with both hurlers showing significantly different home-road splits that could prove decisive.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins matchup, our predictive model gives the Marlins a 61.67% chance of defeating the Brewers.
Miami Marlins: 61.67% win probability
- Excellent road performance (Road record significantly better than Brewers' home record)
- Superior batting average (.267 team average compared to Brewers' .241)
- Dominant pitching rotation (3.42 team ERA versus Brewers' 4.15)
Milwaukee Brewers: 38.33% win probability
- Struggling home record (Only winning 40% of games at American Family Field)
- Inconsistent offensive production (Averaging just 3.8 runs per game in their last 10 contests)
- Bullpen vulnerabilities (5.28 ERA from relievers in high-leverage situations)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Milwaukee Brewers | Miami Marlins | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins preview
The surging Brewers, winners of 13 of their last 16, look to bounce back from Friday's 5-1 defeat when they host the Marlins on Saturday night at American Family Field.
While Milwaukee (61-42) continues its dogfight with Chicago atop the NL Central, Miami (49-52) has quietly crept into the wild card conversation by winning seven of nine.
The pitching matchup presents an intriguing contrast: Janson Junk (4-2, 3.09 ERA) has been particularly effective on the road for Miami, while Milwaukee counters with veteran lefty Jose Quintana (7-3, 3.49 ERA) who has struggled to a 5.12 ERA in home starts.
Milwaukee's offense has heated up in July, hitting .266 for the month, though they've oddly underperformed at home with a .232 average at American Family Field.
The Marlins, meanwhile, bring their road-friendly .263 batting average to a ballpark where they found success in Friday's series opener.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins form
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins head to head
Milwaukee Brewers
50%
Miami Marlins
50%
Jul 25, 2025
Milwaukee Brewers
1 : 5
Miami Marlins
Jul 6, 2025
Miami Marlins
1 : 3
Milwaukee Brewers
Jul 5, 2025
Miami Marlins
4 : 2
Milwaukee Brewers
Jul 4, 2025
Miami Marlins
5 : 6
Milwaukee Brewers
Jul 28, 2024
Milwaukee Brewers
6 : 2
Miami Marlins
Jul 27, 2024
Milwaukee Brewers
3 : 7
Miami Marlins
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