The New York Mets (59-44) look to extend their NL East lead when they face the struggling San Francisco Giants (54-49) at Oracle Park on Saturday night, with David Peterson (2.90 ERA) squaring off against Robbie Ray (2.92 ERA) in what promises to be a tight pitching battle.
The Mets enter with momentum after winning five of their last eight games, while the Giants are hoping to snap out of a slump that has seen them lose six of their last eight and fall to third place in the NL West.
Recent history favors San Francisco with a 6-4 record in their last 10 meetings, but New York's superior offensive production could prove decisive as they aim for their second consecutive series win.
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets matchup, our predictive model gives the Mets a 72.5% chance of defeating the Giants.
New York Mets: 72.5% win probability
- Elite offensive production (Team leads NL in runs scored over last 30 days)
- Dominant starting pitching (3.21 team ERA, 2nd best in MLB)
- Road warriors (18-7 record in last 25 away games)
San Francisco Giants: 27.5% win probability
- Struggling at home (5-12 in last 17 games at Oracle Park)
- Bullpen issues (5.12 ERA in high-leverage situations)
- Batting slump (.212 team average with RISP in July)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| San Francisco Giants | New York Mets | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets preview
The Mets, clinging to a half-game lead over Philadelphia in the NL East, head to Oracle Park looking to build on their momentum after taking their series against the Angels.
David Peterson takes the mound for New York sporting a stellar 2.90 ERA, having surrendered just four runs across his last three starts.
The Giants counter with Robbie Ray (9-4, 2.92 ERA), who despite matching Peterson's season-long effectiveness, has struggled recently—giving up nine runs in his last three outings.
San Francisco finds itself sliding at precisely the wrong time, having dropped six of their last eight games and falling to third in the NL West.
Pete Alonso continues to drive the Mets' offense with 77 RBIs on the season, while Juan Soto's 24 homers have helped New York maintain a respectable offensive output despite their middle-of-the-pack .242 team batting average.
Both clubs boast top-10 pitching staffs by ERA, setting up what could be a compelling pitchers' duel if Ray can recapture his early-season form.
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets form
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets head to head
San Francisco Giants
50%
New York Mets
50%
Jul 26, 2025
San Francisco Giants
1 : 8
New York Mets
May 26, 2024
New York Mets
4 : 3
San Francisco Giants
May 25, 2024
New York Mets
2 : 7
San Francisco Giants
May 24, 2024
New York Mets
7 : 8
San Francisco Giants
Apr 24, 2024
San Francisco Giants
2 : 8
New York Mets
Apr 24, 2024
San Francisco Giants
5 : 1
New York Mets
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