The Milwaukee Brewers (61-41) will host the Chicago Cubs (60-42) in a critical NL Central showdown at American Family Field on Monday, with both teams separated by just one game in the standings.
Milwaukee will send rising star Jacob Misiorowski (4-1, 2.47 ERA) to the mound against Chicago's veteran lefty Matthew Boyd in a pitching matchup that features contrasting styles.
With the Brewers' solid pitching staff (3.59 team ERA) facing the Cubs' potent offense (5.3 runs per game, 2nd in MLB), this matchup could significantly impact the division race heading into the final months of the season.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs matchup, our predictive model gives the Brewers a 70% chance of defeating the Cubs.
Milwaukee Brewers: 70% win probability
- Dominant home field advantage (23-9 record at American Family Field this season)
- Elite bullpen performance (3.12 ERA, best in the National League)
- Efficient run production (averaging 5.3 runs per game in their last 10 home games)
Chicago Cubs: 30% win probability
- Poor road performance (11-22 record away from Wrigley Field this season)
- Struggling offense against right-handed pitching (batting just .228 against RHP)
- Bullpen inconsistency (5.47 ERA in the last 14 days, 27th in MLB)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Milwaukee Brewers | Chicago Cubs | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs preview
The red-hot Milwaukee Brewers welcome their NL Central rivals Chicago Cubs to American Family Field Monday night in what promises to be a pivotal divisional showdown between two of baseball's most productive offenses.
The Cubs bring MLB's second-ranked scoring attack (5.3 runs per game) into Milwaukee, where they'll face emerging Brewers phenom Jacob Misiorowski, whose dazzling 2.47 ERA and stellar 40 strikeouts in just 29 career innings have made him one of baseball's most exciting young arms.
Chicago counters with veteran lefty Matthew Boyd, who despite his career 4.54 ERA will need to navigate carefully through a Brewers lineup scoring nearly 4.8 runs per contest.
Both bullpens have been reliable in tight spots this season, with Milwaukee converting 70% of save opportunities while Chicago's relief corps holds a respectable 68.6% success rate.
The Cubs' defensive efficiency ranks third in baseball, having turned 71.4% of balls in play into outs, while Milwaukee sits fifth in fielding percentage at .987.
With only a game separating these clubs in the standings, this matchup could significantly impact the NL Central race as both teams look to build momentum heading into the season's final two months.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs form
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs head to head
Milwaukee Brewers
50%
Chicago Cubs
50%
Jun 19, 2025
Chicago Cubs
7 : 8
Milwaukee Brewers
Jun 18, 2025
Chicago Cubs
5 : 3
Milwaukee Brewers
May 4, 2025
Milwaukee Brewers
4 : 0
Chicago Cubs
May 3, 2025
Milwaukee Brewers
2 : 6
Chicago Cubs
May 3, 2025
Milwaukee Brewers
0 : 10
Chicago Cubs
Mar 11, 2025
Chicago Cubs
7 : 9
Milwaukee Brewers
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