The Boston Red Sox (55-49) look to build on their recent momentum against the struggling Minnesota Twins (49-53) in Monday's showdown at Target Field, with Richard Fitts facing Simeon Woods Richardson in a pivotal pitching matchup.
The Red Sox, coming off an impressive series win against the Dodgers, bring their high-powered offense (4.9 runs per game, 5th in MLB) to face a Twins squad that has dropped seven of their last ten outings.
With Boston's road struggles (23-29 away from Fenway) colliding with Minnesota's solid home record (29-22), this AL clash features two teams moving in opposite directions as the summer playoff push intensifies.
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox matchup, our predictive model gives the Red Sox a 61.5% chance of defeating the Twins.
Minnesota Twins: 38.5% win probability
- Struggling home performance (18-22 at Target Field this season)
- Bullpen inconsistency (4.68 ERA in last 15 games)
- Below-average run production against left-handed pitching (.225 team average vs LHP)
Boston Red Sox: 61.5% win probability
- Superior offensive production (5.2 runs per game compared to Twins' 4.3)
- Dominant road record (24-16 away from Fenway Park this season)
- Exceptional batting with runners in scoring position (.283 team RISP average)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
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Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox preview
The Red Sox arrive at Target Field looking to build on their momentum after taking two of three from the Dodgers, while the Twins hope to snap out of a funk that's seen them drop seven of their last ten games.
Boston's offense continues to be one of baseball's most productive units, ranking fourth in hits and fifth in runs per game (4.9), with Wilyer Abreu (20 HR, 55 RBI) and Trevor Story (15 HR, 61 RBI) leading the charge.
Monday's pitching matchup features Boston's Richard Fitts (1-4, 4.86 ERA), who has shown improvement with three quality outings in his last four starts, against Minnesota's Simeon Woods Richardson (5-4, 4.14 ERA), who has been surprisingly effective recently, allowing just one earned run or fewer in four of his last five appearances.
The Twins' struggles continue to be compounded by potential health issues for centerfielder Byron Buxton, though his bat has remained potent when in the lineup with a team-leading 23 homers.
Target Field has been a relative haven for the struggling Twins (29-22 at home) compared to Boston's road woes (23-29), setting up an intriguing series opener with the Red Sox currently holding third place in the competitive AL East while Minnesota sits fourth in the Central division.
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox form
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox head to head
Minnesota Twins
67%
Boston Red Sox
33%
May 4, 2025
Boston Red Sox
4 : 5
Minnesota Twins
May 3, 2025
Boston Red Sox
3 : 4
Minnesota Twins
May 2, 2025
Boston Red Sox
6 : 1
Minnesota Twins
Mar 23, 2025
Boston Red Sox
3 : 9
Minnesota Twins
Mar 20, 2025
Minnesota Twins
2 : 1
Boston Red Sox
Mar 16, 2025
Minnesota Twins
5 : 6
Boston Red Sox
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