The New York Yankees (-196) host the Tampa Bay Rays (+162) at Yankee Stadium Monday night in what could be a pivotal AL East showdown between these longtime rivals.
With Max Fried taking the mound against Drew Rasmussen, who has dominated the Yankees with a career 0.34 ERA against them, this matchup features two clubs moving in opposite directions.
The Yankees have been surging behind their powerful lineup averaging 5.2 runs per game, while the struggling Rays have dropped six of their last seven contests and continue to have difficulty generating consistent offense.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays prediction: who will win?
For today's New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays matchup, our predictive model gives the Rays a 52% chance of defeating the Yankees.
New York Yankees: 48% win probability
- Recent bullpen struggles (5.12 ERA in last 14 games)
- Poor performance against division rivals (7-12 vs AL East teams)
- Offensive inconsistency (averaging 3.2 runs in last 10 home games)
Tampa Bay Rays: 52% win probability
- Strong road performance (League-leading 24-16 road record this season)
- Excellent starting pitching (3.68 ERA from starters, 4th best in MLB)
- Disciplined plate approach (Team OBP of .332, 5th in AL)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | |
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New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays preview
The Yankees and Rays renew their AL East rivalry at Yankee Stadium with both teams looking to gain ground in a tight division race.
What was expected to be a pitching duel between Drew Rasmussen and Max Fried has taken an unexpected turn, as the Yankees will now send rookie Cam Schlittler to the mound in place of the veteran lefty.
Rasmussen has been particularly dominant against New York in his career, posting a microscopic 0.34 ERA with 33 strikeouts in previous matchups.
The Yankees' powerful lineup led by Aaron Judge (85 RBIs) and newcomers Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt will test Rasmussen, while Tampa Bay counters with the emerging star Junior Caminero, who's tied for seventh in the league with 26 home runs.
The Rays have struggled recently, dropping six of their last seven games while their offense has gone cold, managing just two runs in several recent contests.
New York hopes to capitalize on their home-field advantage, where they've won five straight night games following a victory, though they've notably stumbled against AL East opponents in similar situations.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays form
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays head to head
New York Yankees
67%
Tampa Bay Rays
33%
May 4, 2025
New York Yankees
5 : 7
Tampa Bay Rays
May 3, 2025
New York Yankees
2 : 3
Tampa Bay Rays
May 2, 2025
New York Yankees
3 : 0
Tampa Bay Rays
Apr 20, 2025
Tampa Bay Rays
0 : 4
New York Yankees
Apr 19, 2025
Tampa Bay Rays
10 : 8
New York Yankees
Apr 18, 2025
Tampa Bay Rays
0 : 1
New York Yankees
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