The New York Mets (59-44) head to Petco Park on Monday to face the San Diego Padres (55-48) in a compelling matchup featuring two playoff contenders with strong pitching staffs.
Frankie Montas takes the mound for the Mets, who boast the league's third-best ERA at 3.57, while Dylan Cease counters for the Padres in what promises to be a low-scoring affair.
Despite being road favorites at -144, the Mets face a Padres team that has been particularly effective at home this season.
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's San Diego Padres vs New York Mets matchup, our predictive model gives the Mets a 57% chance of defeating the Padres.
San Diego Padres: 43% win probability
- Struggling at home (Lost 7 of last 10 at Petco Park)
- Offensive inconsistency (Batting .232 with RISP in last 15 games)
- Pitching fatigue (Starters averaging just 5.1 innings per start in July)
New York Mets: 57% win probability
- Strong road performance (Winning 55% of away games this season)
- Elite bullpen efficiency (3.21 ERA in high-leverage situations)
- Superior run production (Averaging 5.2 runs per game in last 10 outings)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| San Diego Padres | New York Mets | |
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San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets preview
The surging New York Mets bring their potent offense to Petco Park Monday night for a compelling showdown with the San Diego Padres in what could be a playoff preview between two National League contenders.
Frankie Montas takes the hill for the visiting Mets, who own the fifth-best record in baseball behind a pitching staff that ranks third in ERA (3.57) and has allowed the sixth-fewest runs in the majors.
The Padres counter with Dylan Cease, the cornerstone of a San Diego staff that has quietly been one of baseball's most effective units, ranking fifth in both hits allowed and runs per game.
While the Mets' lineup has shown more power (130 homers to San Diego's 88), the Padres have been slightly more consistent with the bat, posting a team average four points higher at .246.
Both bullpens have been reliable in save situations, with San Diego converting at a league-best 74.5% clip compared to New York's still-solid 64%.
The pitching matchup features two starters with remarkably similar career trajectories – Montas (47-47, 4.11 ERA) and Cease (60-56, 3.85 ERA) – suggesting this contest could come down to which offense finds its rhythm first at pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets form
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets head to head
San Diego Padres
50%
New York Mets
50%
Aug 25, 2024
San Diego Padres
3 : 2
New York Mets
Aug 25, 2024
San Diego Padres
1 : 7
New York Mets
Aug 24, 2024
San Diego Padres
7 : 0
New York Mets
Aug 23, 2024
San Diego Padres
3 : 8
New York Mets
Jun 16, 2024
New York Mets
11 : 6
San Diego Padres
Jun 15, 2024
New York Mets
5 : 1
San Diego Padres
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