The San Francisco Giants (54-49) look to leverage their home-field advantage at Oracle Park when they host the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates (42-61) on Monday, with veteran ace Justin Verlander taking the mound against Mitch Keller in a compelling pitching matchup.
Oddsmakers have installed the Giants as modest favorites (-130) in a contest where San Francisco's more productive offense (4.18 runs per game vs Pittsburgh's MLB-worst 3.4) could prove decisive against a Pirates team that has shown solid pitching but significant offensive limitations.
With our predictive model giving the Giants a 56% win probability, this matchup presents an interesting opportunity for bettors looking at the moneyline or considering the total of 8 runs.
San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction: who will win?
For tonight's San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates matchup, our predictive model gives the Giants a 63% chance of defeating the Pirates.
San Francisco Giants: 63% win probability
- Strong home field advantage (Oracle Park historically favors the Giants with a 55% home win rate)
- Superior pitching rotation (3.75 team ERA compared to Pirates' 4.30)
- Excellent clutch hitting (Giants hitting .278 with runners in scoring position this season)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 37% win probability
- Poor road record (13-22 away from PNC Park this season)
- Struggling bullpen (5.12 ERA in last 14 games)
- Offensive inconsistency (averaging just 3.2 runs per game in their last 10 road contests)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
San Francisco Giants | Pittsburgh Pirates | |
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Moneyline |
San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates preview
Justin Verlander takes the mound at Oracle Park as the Giants look to capitalize on their home-field advantage against the struggling Pirates on Monday night.
San Francisco (54-49) enters with momentum and favorable -130 odds, while Pittsburgh (42-61) continues to battle offensive woes, ranking dead last in MLB with just 3.4 runs per game.
The pitching matchup features the veteran Verlander, whose Hall of Fame career includes over 3,400 strikeouts, against Mitch Keller, who brings a career 4.43 ERA into a challenging road environment.
Despite their offensive struggles, the Pirates boast the second-best defensive efficiency in baseball (71.5%), potentially keeping them competitive against a Giants team that's been middle-of-the-pack offensively.
The bullpen battle could prove decisive, with San Francisco's relievers converting 65% of save opportunities compared to Pittsburgh's more vulnerable 56.8% success rate.
Oracle Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions could further benefit the Giants, who have allowed just 88 home runs this season while the Pirates' lineup has managed only 68 homers, setting the stage for what projects to be a low-scoring affair.
San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates form


San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates head to head

San Francisco Giants
67%

Pittsburgh Pirates
33%
May 23, 2024
Pittsburgh Pirates
6 : 7
San Francisco Giants
May 22, 2024
Pittsburgh Pirates
5 : 9
San Francisco Giants
May 21, 2024
Pittsburgh Pirates
7 : 6
San Francisco Giants
Apr 28, 2024
San Francisco Giants
3 : 2
Pittsburgh Pirates
Apr 28, 2024
San Francisco Giants
3 : 4
Pittsburgh Pirates
Apr 27, 2024
San Francisco Giants
3 : 0
Pittsburgh Pirates
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