The Detroit Tigers (62-46) look to build on their momentum after Monday's convincing 5-1 victory when they host the struggling Arizona Diamondbacks (51-56) in the second game of their series at Comerica Park.
Casey Mize (9-4, 3.40 ERA) takes the mound for Detroit against Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt (10-6, 4.76 ERA) in a matchup that heavily favors the AL Central leaders.
The Diamondbacks have lost six of their last seven games and have managed just two runs total across their last four contests, making the Tigers' home field advantage even more significant.
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks matchup, our predictive model gives the Tigers a 77.5% chance of defeating the D-backs.
Detroit Tigers: 77.5% win probability
- Dominant home field advantage (23-8 record at Comerica Park)
- Elite starting pitching (3.15 team ERA, 2nd in MLB)
- Explosive offense averaging 5.8 runs per game in last 10 home games
Arizona Diamondbacks: 22.5% win probability
- Poor road performance (11-19 in away games this season)
- Struggling bullpen (5.82 ERA in last 14 road games)
- Offensive slump (batting .218 with RISP in their last 8 games)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Detroit Tigers | Arizona Diamondbacks | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks preview
The struggling Diamondbacks limp into Comerica Park having lost six of their last seven games, including Monday's 5-1 defeat where they managed just a single run in the eighth inning to avoid the shutout.
Detroit counters with Casey Mize (9-4, 3.40 ERA), who has been nearly untouchable at home, recording wins in his last four starts at Comerica against sub-.500 teams.
Brandon Pfaadt takes the mound for Arizona despite the team's offensive woes – they've scored a measly two runs across their last four games, with Eugenio Suarez's 36 homers providing rare bright spots.
The Tigers, leading the AL Central, have their own recent struggles, dropping six of their last eight, but remain formidable at home with a 34-21 record.
Riley Greene continues to power Detroit's offense with 25 homers and 81 RBIs, while Spencer Torkelson brings a remarkable streak of hits in ten straight games against struggling NL West opponents.
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks form
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks head to head
Detroit Tigers
50%
Arizona Diamondbacks
50%
Jul 28, 2025
Detroit Tigers
5 : 1
Arizona Diamondbacks
May 19, 2024
Arizona Diamondbacks
6 : 4
Detroit Tigers
May 19, 2024
Arizona Diamondbacks
3 : 8
Detroit Tigers
May 18, 2024
Arizona Diamondbacks
0 : 13
Detroit Tigers
Jun 11, 2023
Detroit Tigers
5 : 7
Arizona Diamondbacks
Jun 10, 2023
Detroit Tigers
0 : 5
Arizona Diamondbacks
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