The injury-depleted Houston Astros (60-46) look to bounce back from a four-game sweep by the Athletics as they host the Washington Nationals (43-62) at Daikin Park on Tuesday night.
Michael Soroka takes the mound for Washington riding a streak of solid performances despite lacking run support, while Houston's pitching staff, with eight starters currently on the IL, may opt for a bullpen day or turn to Jason Alexander who struggled in his last outing.
The Nationals enter this matchup with momentum, having won two consecutive series since the All-Star break, while the Astros' offensive woes continue with several key bats missing from their lineup.
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals matchup, our predictive model gives the Astros a 56.33% chance of defeating the Nats.
Houston Astros: 56.33% win probability
- Home field advantage at Minute Maid Park (24-16 home record in 2024)
- Strong starting rotation led by Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier (3.87 team ERA, 6th in AL)
- Power-hitting lineup featuring Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve (128 team HRs, 5th in AL)
Washington Nationals: 43.67% win probability
- Poor road performance (17-22 away record in 2024)
- Weak offensive production (28th in MLB with 3.8 runs per game)
- Struggling bullpen (4.75 relief ERA, 23rd in MLB)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Houston Astros | Washington Nationals | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals preview
The struggling Nationals roll into Houston with a chance to capitalize on an Astros team that's been surprisingly vulnerable despite leading the AL West by four games.
Washington has found its rhythm since the All-Star break, winning back-to-back series against Cincinnati and Minnesota while their bullpen has stepped up with a solid 3.28 ERA over that stretch.
Michael Soroka takes the mound for the Nationals looking to build on his recent form—he's allowed just four earned runs over his last 14.2 innings despite going winless in those outings.
The Astros, meanwhile, are in the midst of a puzzling slump, having just been swept at home by Oakland while scoring a meager seven runs across that four-game series.
Houston's pitching staff has been decimated by injuries with eight starters currently on the IL, likely forcing them to turn to Jason Alexander, who was roughed up for five runs in his last outing, or potentially cobble together a bullpen game.
The absence of key bats like Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena, and Isaac Paredes has further complicated matters for an Astros team that's hitting just .241 since the break and suddenly looks vulnerable despite their status as heavy favorites.
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals form
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals head to head
Houston Astros
33%
Washington Nationals
67%
Jul 29, 2025
Houston Astros
1 : 2
Washington Nationals
Mar 23, 2025
Washington Nationals
6 : 8
Houston Astros
Mar 18, 2025
Houston Astros
3 : 4
Washington Nationals
Mar 12, 2025
Washington Nationals
9 : 3
Houston Astros
Mar 2, 2025
Houston Astros
3 : 4
Washington Nationals
Feb 26, 2025
Washington Nationals
0 : 3
Houston Astros
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