The NL Central race heats up as the Chicago Cubs (62-43) and Milwaukee Brewers (62-43) clash in a pivotal divisional showdown at American Family Field on Tuesday night, with both teams deadlocked atop the standings.
Colin Rea takes the mound for the Cubs looking to bounce back from a rough outing, while Milwaukee counters with Quinn Priester, who brings an impressive 9-2 record and has been nearly unbeatable with the Brewers winning his last 10 starts.
With Chicago's league-leading offense facing Milwaukee's shutdown pitching staff, this matchup represents a classic strength-versus-strength battle that could shift the balance of power in the division race.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs matchup, our predictive model gives the Brewers a 69.33% chance of defeating the Cubs.
Milwaukee Brewers: 69.33% win probability
- Dominant home field advantage (22-9 record at American Family Field this season)
- Superior pitching rotation (3.78 team ERA, ranking 5th in MLB)
- Efficient run production (5.2 runs per game over their last 10 contests)
Chicago Cubs: 30.67% win probability
- Poor road performance (11-19 away record in 2025)
- Offensive struggles against right-handed pitching (batting .227 vs RHP this season)
- Bullpen inconsistency (5.12 ERA in high-leverage situations, 24th in MLB)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Milwaukee Brewers | Chicago Cubs | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs preview
The NL Central race couldn't be tighter as the Cubs and Brewers enter Tuesday's clash deadlocked atop the division with identical 62-43 records, setting up a pivotal showdown at American Family Field.
Milwaukee sends breakout star Quinn Priester (9-2, 3.29 ERA) to the mound, looking to continue his remarkable run that has seen the Brewers win his last 10 starts, though the Cubs have tagged him for 11 runs in previous meetings this season.
Chicago counters with Colin Rea, who despite posting a solid 3.04 ERA in July, struggled in his last outing when he surrendered six runs against Kansas City.
The contrast in momentum couldn't be starker—Milwaukee recently ripped off an 11-game winning streak before cooling slightly against Miami, while Chicago has managed just three wins in their last seven games.
Pete Crow-Armstrong continues his power surge for the Cubs with 27 homers, while Jackson Chourio has been Milwaukee's catalyst with 17 RBIs in July alone.
With Chicago's league-leading offense (5.26 runs per game) going against Milwaukee's stingy pitching staff (3.58 ERA, 4th in MLB), this matchup pits strength against strength in what could be a season-defining series for both clubs.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs form
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs head to head
Milwaukee Brewers
50%
Chicago Cubs
50%
Jul 28, 2025
Milwaukee Brewers
8 : 4
Chicago Cubs
Jun 19, 2025
Chicago Cubs
7 : 8
Milwaukee Brewers
Jun 18, 2025
Chicago Cubs
5 : 3
Milwaukee Brewers
May 4, 2025
Milwaukee Brewers
4 : 0
Chicago Cubs
May 3, 2025
Milwaukee Brewers
2 : 6
Chicago Cubs
May 3, 2025
Milwaukee Brewers
0 : 10
Chicago Cubs
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