The Boston Red Sox (57-50) head to Target Field to face the struggling Minnesota Twins (50-55) in a matchup featuring Lucas Giolito against an undetermined Twins starter following Chris Paddack's trade to Detroit.
Both teams have been trending downward recently, with Boston going 5-5 in their last ten while Minnesota has stumbled to a 3-7 record over the same stretch.
With Boston's strong bullpen and both teams' recent offensive struggles, Tuesday's contest shapes up as a potential low-scoring affair with significant playoff implications for the visiting Red Sox.
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox matchup, our predictive model gives the Red Sox a 63% chance of defeating the Twins.
Minnesota Twins: 37% win probability
- Struggling at home (16-21 record at Target Field)
- Hitting slump (batting .221 as a team over last 14 games)
- Bullpen instability (5.12 relief ERA in last 20 games)
Boston Red Sox: 63% win probability
- Dominant road performance (22-14 away record this season)
- Elite offensive production (5.2 runs per game over last 10 games)
- Superior pitching rotation (3.78 team ERA compared to Twins' 4.42)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Minnesota Twins | Boston Red Sox | |
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| Moneyline |
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox preview
The Boston Red Sox visit Target Field looking to continue their surprising playoff push against a Twins team that has seemingly lost its way after a promising start to the season.
Lucas Giolito takes the mound for Boston, bringing his impressive 3.30 ERA on the road this season against a Minnesota squad that recently traded away starter Chris Paddack, creating uncertainty in their rotation.
The Red Sox have struggled offensively since the All-Star break, hitting just .202 while averaging only 3.2 runs per game during that stretch, a far cry from their season-long rank of fifth in MLB scoring.
Minnesota enters Tuesday's contest on a downward spiral, having lost seven of their last ten games while trying to determine if they're still postseason contenders in a competitive AL Central.
Boston's bullpen could prove decisive, as their relievers have pitched to an excellent 3.30 ERA while Minnesota's pen has struggled with a 4.33 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
The under has been a profitable trend when these teams meet, hitting in eight of their last twelve matchups – including a 6-4 mark in their last ten encounters.
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox form
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox head to head
Minnesota Twins
67%
Boston Red Sox
33%
May 4, 2025
Boston Red Sox
4 : 5
Minnesota Twins
May 3, 2025
Boston Red Sox
3 : 4
Minnesota Twins
May 2, 2025
Boston Red Sox
6 : 1
Minnesota Twins
Mar 23, 2025
Boston Red Sox
3 : 9
Minnesota Twins
Mar 20, 2025
Minnesota Twins
2 : 1
Boston Red Sox
Mar 16, 2025
Minnesota Twins
5 : 6
Boston Red Sox
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