The Tampa Bay Rays look to build on their series-opening momentum as they send red-hot Joe Boyle (1-0, 1.42 ERA) to face the slumping Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night.
New York counters with ace Max Fried (11-4, 2.62 ERA), who despite his impressive season record has struggled recently, allowing 14 earned runs across his last four starts.
With both teams battling through difficult stretches—Tampa Bay having lost four of six before Monday's win and New York dropping four of their last five—this AL East showdown carries significant weight for two clubs trying to right their respective ships.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays matchup, our predictive model gives the Rays a 67.5% chance of defeating the Yankees.
New York Yankees: 32.5% win probability
- Home field struggles (Supporting statistic unavailable without league standings)
- Batting slump against lefties (Supporting statistic unavailable without league standings)
- Bullpen inconsistency (Supporting statistic unavailable without league standings)
Tampa Bay Rays: 67.5% win probability
- Dominant road performance (Supporting statistic unavailable without league standings)
- Superior pitching staff (Supporting statistic unavailable without league standings)
- Offensive efficiency (Supporting statistic unavailable without league standings)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | |
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New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays preview
The Yankees and Rays resume their AL East rivalry at Yankee Stadium after Tampa Bay drew first blood with a 4-2 victory in Monday's series opener.
Joe Boyle takes the mound for Tampa riding remarkable momentum, having surrendered just three earned runs across his last 19 innings, while New York counters with veteran Max Fried who's been showing signs of vulnerability with 14 earned runs allowed over his last four starts.
Junior Caminero continues to power Tampa's offense with 27 homers and 70 RBIs on the season, including a crucial home run in Monday's win.
The Yankees, now having dropped four of their last five games, face mounting pressure as they'll need to navigate without Aaron Judge in the lineup—a particularly concerning absence considering Judge has homered in each of his last five home games against winning AL East opponents.
Recent history doesn't favor the home team, with New York losing seven of their last eight as favorites against AL East opponents following a loss.
Both teams find themselves in need of a victory streak as Tampa sits fourth in the division while the Yankees, despite their 57-49 record, are trying to maintain their position in second place.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays form
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays head to head
New York Yankees
50%
Tampa Bay Rays
50%
Jul 28, 2025
New York Yankees
2 : 4
Tampa Bay Rays
May 4, 2025
New York Yankees
5 : 7
Tampa Bay Rays
May 3, 2025
New York Yankees
2 : 3
Tampa Bay Rays
May 2, 2025
New York Yankees
3 : 0
Tampa Bay Rays
Apr 20, 2025
Tampa Bay Rays
0 : 4
New York Yankees
Apr 19, 2025
Tampa Bay Rays
10 : 8
New York Yankees
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