The red-hot New York Mets (62-44) bring their seven-game winning streak to Petco Park on Tuesday night as they face the struggling San Diego Padres (57-49) in a pivotal NL matchup.
New York sends Sean Manaea (1-1, 2.19 ERA) to the mound against San Diego's slumping Yu Darvish (0-3, 9.18 ERA), creating a stark pitching contrast that heavily favors the visitors.
With the Mets looking to extend their 1.5-game NL East lead and the Padres trying to snap out of a recent funk, this clash features two teams heading in opposite directions.
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's San Diego Padres vs New York Mets matchup, our predictive model gives the Mets a 66.5% chance of defeating the Padres.
San Diego Padres: 33.5% win probability
- Home field struggles (5-11 in last 16 games at Petco Park)
- Batting slump (hitting .218 collectively over the past two weeks)
- Starting pitching inconsistency (5.42 ERA from starters in last 8 home games)
New York Mets: 66.5% win probability
- Road dominance (12-4 record in last 16 away games)
- Elite offensive production (averaging 5.7 runs per game over their last 10 contests)
- Bullpen efficiency (2.84 ERA in high-leverage situations)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| San Diego Padres | New York Mets | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets preview
The Mets roll into Petco Park riding high with seven wins in their last eight games, looking to extend their 1.5-game lead in the NL East as they face a Padres squad that's trying to gain ground on the Dodgers.
Tuesday's pitching matchup couldn't present a starker contrast, with New York's Sean Manaea (1-1, 2.19 ERA) looking sharp after allowing just three runs across his last three starts, while San Diego counters with the struggling Yu Darvish (0-3, 9.18 ERA) who's surrendered a troubling 15 runs in his last three outings.
Pete Alonso continues to drive the Mets' offense with his team-leading 81 RBIs, while Manny Machado remains the Padres' most consistent threat, batting .300 with 19 homers.
New York's success against right-handed pitching (.249 average) could spell trouble for Darvish, who's had particular difficulty keeping the Mets in check recently, giving up eight runs in his last two starts against them.
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets form
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets head to head
San Diego Padres
50%
New York Mets
50%
Aug 25, 2024
San Diego Padres
3 : 2
New York Mets
Aug 25, 2024
San Diego Padres
1 : 7
New York Mets
Aug 24, 2024
San Diego Padres
7 : 0
New York Mets
Aug 23, 2024
San Diego Padres
3 : 8
New York Mets
Jun 16, 2024
New York Mets
11 : 6
San Diego Padres
Jun 15, 2024
New York Mets
5 : 1
San Diego Padres
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