The Miami Marlins (50-54) head to Busch Stadium riding a strong road streak, winning 15 of their last 19 away games, as they face a struggling St. Louis Cardinals (54-53) squad that has dropped four of their last six contests.
Tuesday's pitching matchup features a tale of contrasting fortunes with Miami's Sandy Alcantara coming off a brilliant seven-inning shutout performance against the Padres, while Cardinals' ace Sonny Gray has surrendered 14 runs across his last 8.1 innings.
With the Marlins' solid .253 team batting average going against the Cardinals' recent defensive woes, this NL showdown could offer more value for the underdog than the odds suggest.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins prediction: who will win?
For tonight's St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins matchup, our predictive model gives the Marlins a 58% chance of defeating the Cards.
Miami Marlins: 58% win probability
- Strong road performance (Statistical support unavailable)
- Effective pitching staff against NL Central opponents (Statistical support unavailable)
- Recent offensive momentum (Statistical support unavailable)
St. Louis Cardinals: 42% win probability
- Struggles against right-handed pitching (Statistical support unavailable)
- Home field disadvantage in night games (Statistical support unavailable)
- Bullpen vulnerability in late innings (Statistical support unavailable)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| St. Louis Cardinals | Miami Marlins | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins preview
The red-hot Marlins roll into Busch Stadium riding a 15-4 road surge as they look to build on their recent success against the struggling Cardinals, who've dropped four of their last six contests.
Tuesday's mound matchup features a fascinating contrast with Miami's Sandy Alcantara coming off a brilliant seven-inning shutout performance against San Diego, while St. Louis ace Sonny Gray has been hammered for 14 runs over his last two outings.
Kyle Stowers continues to power the Marlins' offense with team-leading totals of 23 home runs and 63 RBIs, providing the punch for a Miami lineup that ranks 8th in MLB with a .253 team batting average.
For the Cardinals, Willson Contreras remains the offensive catalyst with 14 homers and 61 RBIs, though St. Louis will need to overcome their recent 4-9 skid against NL opponents to maintain their dominance in this head-to-head series.
Recent history favors the Cardinals, who've taken seven of the last ten meetings, but Gray's recent struggles combined with Miami's remarkable road success make this middle game of the three-game set particularly intriguing.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins form
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins head to head
St. Louis Cardinals
80%
Miami Marlins
20%
Jul 28, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals
7 : 1
Miami Marlins
Mar 22, 2025
Miami Marlins
2 : 8
St. Louis Cardinals
Mar 18, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals
4 : 4
Miami Marlins
Mar 16, 2025
Miami Marlins
11 : 5
St. Louis Cardinals
Mar 11, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals
5 : 12
Miami Marlins
Mar 2, 2025
Miami Marlins
5 : 3
St. Louis Cardinals
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