The struggling Colorado Rockies (28-78) will look to salvage their three-game series against the Cleveland Guardians (53-54) on Wednesday at Progressive Field, with Kyle Freeland (2-10, 5.24 ERA) taking the mound against Cleveland's Kolby Allard (2-1, 2.83 ERA).
Despite showing signs of life since the All-Star break, Colorado's pitching staff continues to be a major liability, posting a concerning 6.03 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over the past 10 days.
The Guardians, meanwhile, will aim to build on their commanding 10-4 victory in game two, powered by Kyle Manzardo's two-homer performance as they fight to keep pace with Detroit in the AL Central race.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies matchup, our predictive model gives the Guardians a 60% chance of defeating the Rockies.
Cleveland Guardians: 60% win probability
- Strong home field advantage (21-9 record at Progressive Field this season)
- Elite bullpen performance (3.12 ERA, second-best in MLB)
- Superior run differential (+43 on the season, compared to Rockies' -67)
Colorado Rockies: 40% win probability
- Poor road performance (11-28 away record, second-worst in National League)
- Struggling starting rotation (5.78 ERA from starters, worst in MLB)
- Defensive liability (82 errors committed, most in baseball this season)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Cleveland Guardians | Colorado Rockies | |
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies preview
The Rockies have been surprisingly competitive since the All-Star break, winning several series and bringing their hot bats (.269/.320/.461 triple-slash) to Progressive Field where they stunned Cleveland 8-6 in the series opener before dropping game two 10-4.
Wednesday's rubber match pits struggling southpaw Kyle Freeland (2-10, 5.24 ERA) against the Guardians, who have been absolutely feasting on left-handed pitching since the break with a robust .305/.380/.505 slash line.
Cleveland's Kyle Manzardo enters on a tear after going 3-for-4 with two homers in Tuesday's victory, while the Guardians desperately need wins to keep pace in the AL Central race.
The Rockies' road woes (14-41 away from Coors Field) and bullpen struggles (7.96 ERA over the last 10 days) present significant challenges against a Cleveland team that's won eight straight Wednesday night games at Progressive Field.
Though Cleveland has yet to announce their starter, early indications suggest Kolby Allard (2-1, 2.83 ERA) may get the nod as the Guardians look to capitalize on Colorado's struggling offense away from the thin air of Denver.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies form


Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies head to head

Cleveland Guardians
17%

Colorado Rockies
83%
Jul 29, 2025
Cleveland Guardians
10 : 4
Colorado Rockies
Jul 28, 2025
Cleveland Guardians
6 : 8
Colorado Rockies
Mar 13, 2025
Colorado Rockies
6 : 4
Cleveland Guardians
Feb 28, 2025
Cleveland Guardians
3 : 1
Colorado Rockies
May 30, 2024
Colorado Rockies
7 : 4
Cleveland Guardians
May 29, 2024
Colorado Rockies
7 : 13
Cleveland Guardians
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