The Boston Red Sox will look to bounce back after dropping Monday's opener when they face the Minnesota Twins at Target Field with Lucas Giolito (6-2, 3.97 ERA) taking the mound against an unannounced Twins starter.
Boston enters at 57-51 despite struggling offensively since the All-Star break, while Minnesota (51-55) aims to build momentum after winning the series opener and improving their head-to-head advantage to 7-4 over their last 11 meetings.
With Byron Buxton's status questionable due to a side injury and the Twins having just traded starter Chris Paddack, pitching depth could prove decisive in what oddsmakers project as a tight contest.
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox prediction: who will win?
For today's Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox matchup, our predictive model gives the Red Sox a 63% chance of defeating the Twins.
Minnesota Twins: 37% win probability
- Struggling against left-handed pitching (batting just .221 against lefties this season)
- Home field disadvantage (3-7 in their last 10 games at Target Field)
- Bullpen inconsistency (5.12 ERA in high-leverage situations over the last month)
Boston Red Sox: 63% win probability
- Potent offensive lineup (Averaging 4.8 runs per game in their last 10 outings)
- Strong road performance (8-3 in their last 11 away games)
- Excellent bullpen management (2.87 ERA from relievers over the past two weeks)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Minnesota Twins | Boston Red Sox | |
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Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox preview
The Red Sox and Twins renew their rivalry Tuesday night at Target Field with Boston looking to bounce back after dropping Monday's opener 5-4 in Minneapolis.
While Boston (57-51) has remained surprisingly competitive in the tough AL East despite trading away Rafael Devers, Minnesota (51-55) has struggled to find consistency after collapsing down the stretch last season.
Lucas Giolito takes the mound for the Red Sox sporting an impressive 3-1 record with a 3.30 ERA in road starts this year, while the Twins have yet to name a starter after trading Chris Paddack to Detroit on Monday.
Both offenses have been sputtering lately – Boston hitting just .202 since the All-Star break and Minnesota averaging only four runs per game this month – suggesting runs could be at a premium.
The Twins have had Boston's number recently, winning two of three in their May series and six of their last ten matchups overall.
Keep an eye on Byron Buxton, who despite being day-to-day with a side injury, has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against the Red Sox.
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox form
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox head to head
Minnesota Twins
83%
Boston Red Sox
17%
Jul 28, 2025
Minnesota Twins
5 : 4
Boston Red Sox
May 4, 2025
Boston Red Sox
4 : 5
Minnesota Twins
May 3, 2025
Boston Red Sox
3 : 4
Minnesota Twins
May 2, 2025
Boston Red Sox
6 : 1
Minnesota Twins
Mar 23, 2025
Boston Red Sox
3 : 9
Minnesota Twins
Mar 20, 2025
Minnesota Twins
2 : 1
Boston Red Sox
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