The Tampa Bay Rays look to build on their season-series advantage as they face a slumping New York Yankees team missing superstar Aaron Judge in their Wednesday night clash at Yankee Stadium.
With Zack Littell (3.72 ERA) outperforming Yankees starter Will Warren (4.82 ERA) this season, Tampa Bay aims to capitalize on New York's recent slide that has seen them drop four of their last five games.
The pitching matchup and Judge's continued absence with an elbow injury set the stage for what oddsmakers view as a tight contest, despite the Yankees entering as slight home favorites.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays matchup, our predictive model gives the Rays a 59% chance of defeating the Yankees.
New York Yankees: 41% win probability
- Struggles against division rivals (Yankees are below .500 against AL East opponents this season)
- Bullpen inconsistency (New York's relievers have blown 7 saves in their last 15 opportunities)
- Batting slump (Yankees hitting just .223 as a team over their last 10 games)
Tampa Bay Rays: 59% win probability
- Superior road performance (Rays have shown excellent form away from Tropicana Field this season)
- Dominant pitching rotation (Tampa's staff leads the AL in strikeouts and WHIP)
- Offensive efficiency (Rays rank in the top 5 in runs scored per game in the American League)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays preview
The slumping Yankees, losers of four of their last five, will look to right the ship without slugger Aaron Judge as they continue their four-game set against the Rays at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday night.
Tampa Bay snapped a four-game skid with a 4-2 victory in Monday's series opener, powered by Junior Caminero's first-inning homer, and now holds a surprising 3-1 edge in the season series against their division rivals.
The pitching matchup features Tampa's steady Zack Littell (8-8, 3.72 ERA) against New York's Will Warren (6-5, 4.82 ERA) in what profiles as a low-scoring affair given both teams' recent offensive struggles.
The 22-year-old Caminero has emerged as Tampa's most dangerous bat with 27 homers and 70 RBIs, while the Yankees will lean heavily on Cody Bellinger (.281, 19 HR) to provide offensive punch in Judge's absence.
Though five games back in the AL East race now led by Toronto, the Yankees would still claim the top Wild Card spot if the season ended today—making this mid-week divisional clash particularly meaningful for both clubs.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays form
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays head to head
New York Yankees
50%
Tampa Bay Rays
50%
Jul 28, 2025
New York Yankees
2 : 4
Tampa Bay Rays
May 4, 2025
New York Yankees
5 : 7
Tampa Bay Rays
May 3, 2025
New York Yankees
2 : 3
Tampa Bay Rays
May 2, 2025
New York Yankees
3 : 0
Tampa Bay Rays
Apr 20, 2025
Tampa Bay Rays
0 : 4
New York Yankees
Apr 19, 2025
Tampa Bay Rays
10 : 8
New York Yankees
Betting on the MLB?
Sporting Post is your trusted hub for MLB betting coverage. We break down expert MLB predictions and deliver today’s MLB best bets with clear, data-driven analysis. Want secure and reliable options? Explore our top picks for MLB betting sites.
Share this post
Related
