The New York Mets look to bounce back from their series-opening walk-off loss as they send Clay Holmes (9-5, 3.40 ERA) to face a struggling Yu Darvish (0-3, 9.18 ERA) in Wednesday's finale at Petco Park.
With the Mets fighting to maintain their slim 1.5-game lead in the NL East and the Padres clinging to the final NL wild card spot, this matchup features two teams with urgent playoff aspirations heading in opposite directions.
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's San Diego Padres vs New York Mets matchup, our predictive model gives the Mets a 70% chance of defeating the Padres.
San Diego Padres: 30% win probability
- Struggling at home (4-11 in last 15 home games)
- Offensive slump (batting .221 as a team in last two weeks)
- Bullpen issues (5.67 ERA in high-leverage situations this month)
New York Mets: 70% win probability
- Dominant road performance (15-7 record in last 22 away games)
- Superior batting lineup (averaging 5.3 runs per game in July)
- Strong pitching rotation (3.42 ERA over the last 30 days)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| San Diego Padres | New York Mets | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets preview
The Mets' seven-game winning streak may have been snapped in Monday's walk-off heartbreaker, but they'll look to claim the series behind Clay Holmes, who's been solid with a 3.40 ERA this season.
San Diego counters with the struggling Yu Darvish, who's shown alarming signs in his return from injury with an 0-3 record and bloated 9.18 ERA across just four starts.
While the Padres cling to the NL's final wild card spot, New York has more urgent business as they battle to maintain their slim 1.5-game lead over Philadelphia in the NL East race.
Both offenses showed punch in Monday's series opener, with Mark Vientos driving in four runs for New York while San Diego's Elias Diaz delivered the walk-off winner.
Petco Park typically plays pitcher-friendly, but with Darvish yet to complete more than five innings in any start this season and getting tagged for eight runs in his last outing, the Mets' lineup could be poised for a big afternoon in southern California.
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets form
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets head to head
San Diego Padres
67%
New York Mets
33%
Jul 29, 2025
San Diego Padres
7 : 6
New York Mets
Aug 25, 2024
San Diego Padres
3 : 2
New York Mets
Aug 25, 2024
San Diego Padres
1 : 7
New York Mets
Aug 24, 2024
San Diego Padres
7 : 0
New York Mets
Aug 23, 2024
San Diego Padres
3 : 8
New York Mets
Jun 16, 2024
New York Mets
11 : 6
San Diego Padres
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