The Cincinnati Reds (56-52) look to strengthen their wild card push as they host the injury-plagued Atlanta Braves (45-61) in the opener of a crucial three-game series at Great American Ball Park on Thursday night.
Andrew Abbott (8-1, 2.09 ERA) takes the mound for the surging Reds against Carlos Carrasco, who makes his Braves debut after being acquired from the Yankees amid Atlanta's pitching crisis.
With Ronald Acuña Jr. joining Atlanta's growing injury list and Cincinnati sitting just three games out of the final NL wild card spot, this matchup presents a tale of two teams on dramatically different trajectories.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves matchup, our predictive model gives the Reds a 75% chance of defeating the Braves.
Cincinnati Reds: 75% win probability
- Significantly better win-loss record (57-52 compared to Atlanta's 45-62)
- More potent offense with 496 runs scored versus Atlanta's 443
- Strong recent form (WLLWW) compared to Atlanta's struggling pattern (LLWLL)
Atlanta Braves: 25% win probability
- Poor overall record with just 45 wins in 107 games (.421 winning percentage)
- Negative run differential (-24) showing consistent scoring deficits
- Struggling on the road with a 4-1 loss record in their last 5 games (LLWLL recent form)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Cincinnati Reds | Atlanta Braves | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves preview
The slumping Atlanta Braves limp into Cincinnati having lost six of their last seven games and now face the additional gut punch of Ronald Acuña Jr. hitting the IL with an Achilles injury.
The Reds, just three games out of a wild card spot, counter Atlanta's desperation with their ace Andrew Abbott, who brings a sparkling 2.09 ERA and has allowed just one run over his last 19.2 innings.
Carlos Carrasco makes his Braves debut after being cast off by the Yankees earlier this season, a telling sign of Atlanta's injury-ravaged rotation that's missing Chris Sale and four other starters.
Cincinnati's playoff hopes remain very much alive as they begin this crucial three-game homestand, looking to capitalize on the favorable pitching matchup at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Abbott already silenced Atlanta's bats once this season, throwing five scoreless innings with eight strikeouts back in May, though the Reds ultimately lost that game in extra innings.
With Cincinnati's home crowd behind them and facing a Braves team in disarray at 16 games under .500, the Reds have a golden opportunity to gain ground in the wild card race.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves form
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves head to head
Cincinnati Reds
33%
Atlanta Braves
67%
May 8, 2025
Atlanta Braves
5 : 4
Cincinnati Reds
May 7, 2025
Atlanta Braves
3 : 4
Cincinnati Reds
May 6, 2025
Atlanta Braves
2 : 1
Cincinnati Reds
May 5, 2025
Atlanta Braves
4 : 0
Cincinnati Reds
Sep 19, 2024
Cincinnati Reds
3 : 15
Atlanta Braves
Sep 18, 2024
Cincinnati Reds
1 : 7
Atlanta Braves
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