MLB Best Bets Today: Expert MLB Betting Picks for 07/31/2025

The Yankees have momentum on their side with two consecutive wins and a 3-1 record in their last four games, making them a strong play at home against the struggling Rays.

Tampa Bay has been in a tailspin, losing eight of their last ten games overall and nine of their last ten against teams with winning records, suggesting they're outmatched against quality opponents.

While Ryan Pepiot (6-8, 3.42 ERA) gives Tampa Bay a slight edge on the mound over Marcus Stroman (2-2, 6.09 ERA), the Yankees' home field advantage (33-22 at Yankee Stadium) should neutralize this pitching difference.

New York's offense has been more productive than Tampa's this season, scoring 557 runs with a .253 batting average compared to the Rays' 501 runs.

The Yankees have historically performed well in Thursday home games, winning their last nine, while the Rays have struggled on the road with a 23-27 record away from Tropicana Field.

The Cincinnati Reds present strong value as home favorites against an injury-riddled Atlanta Braves team that continues to face major roster challenges.

Atlanta just placed Ronald Acuna Jr. on the IL with an Achilles injury, adding to their misery with several key pitchers already sidelined including Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach and Reynaldo Lopez.

The Braves are sending Carlos Carrasco to make his debut with the team after being dumped by the Yankees earlier this season, while the Reds counter with Andrew Abbott who boasts an impressive 8-1 record with a 2.09 ERA.

Abbott has been exceptional at home with a 12-9 record and 3.06 ERA at Great American Ball Park in his career, and he's riding strong recent form with a 1.83 ERA over his last three starts.

With Cincinnati playing meaningful games in a playoff chase while Atlanta sits 16 games under .500, the motivation factor heavily favors the Reds in this matchup.

The total runs line in the Rangers-Mariners matchup presents excellent value at Over 7.5 runs, with strong indicators from both pitching matchups and recent offensive performances.

Kumar Rocker for Texas has allowed multiple runs in five of his previous six starts, while posting a 4.82 ERA in his two outings against Seattle this season.

On the other side, George Kirby has given up 10 runs in his last three starts and surrendered 15 hits and 10 runs in his last 17 innings of work.

The Rangers are showing offensive life, batting .275 and scoring 37 runs over their past 6 games despite struggling on the road this season.

Seven of the past ten head-to-head meetings between these teams have gone Over, and seven of Texas's last ten games overall have followed the same pattern, making this a solid play for Thursday night.

The Rangers moneyline offers excellent underdog value against a Mariners team that's struggling offensively, particularly at home where they rank dead last in batting average at .224.

Kumar Rocker has shown significant improvement recently, allowing just 3 runs over his last 10 innings pitched, and he'll face a Seattle lineup batting a dismal .197 over their last 7 games.

While George Kirby typically performs well for Seattle, he's been vulnerable lately, surrendering 15 hits and 10 runs in his last 17 innings with a mediocre 4.50 ERA and 5-5 record this season.

Texas has discovered their offensive rhythm, batting .275 while scoring 37 runs over their past 6 games, suggesting they're well-positioned to make solid contact against Kirby.

Although Seattle has a slight edge in the standings, the Rangers' recent offensive production combined with Rocker's improved form makes them a compelling underdog play at the valuable +135 price point.