The struggling Tampa Bay Rays (54-55) head to Yankee Stadium looking to salvage the final game of their series against the surging New York Yankees (59-49) on Thursday afternoon.
Ryan Pepiot (6-8, 3.42 ERA) takes the mound for Tampa Bay against Marcus Stroman (2-2, 6.09 ERA), who has particularly struggled at home with a concerning 7.11 ERA in the Bronx this season.
Despite the Rays' recent skid, having lost eight of their last ten games, the pitching matchup might give Tampa Bay a fighting chance against a Yankees team that has won three of their last four contests.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays prediction: who will win?
For today's New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays matchup, our predictive model gives the Rays a 55% chance of defeating the Yankees.
New York Yankees: 45% win probability
- Recent inconsistent performance (WWLWL form shows inability to string together wins)
- Home field advantage hasn't translated to dominant record (currently 4th in AL East despite higher win total)
- Vulnerable pitching staff (461 runs allowed, middle of the pack in AL)
Tampa Bay Rays: 55% win probability
- Excellent run production (501 runs scored, 4th in AL East)
- Strong overall offensive output despite lower standing (top 10 in AL with 501 runs)
- Momentum advantage with recent form more consistent than Yankees (both teams 2-3 in last five, but Rays' losses less streaky)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays preview
The Yankees aim to close out their four-game series against the Rays with a third straight win after Wednesday night's thrilling 5-4 extra-innings victory gave them a 2-1 series edge.
Tampa Bay has been in free fall, dropping eight of their last ten contests while sliding to fourth place in the competitive AL East.
Thursday's pitching matchup offers an intriguing contrast, with Tampa's Ryan Pepiot (6-8, 3.42 ERA) providing one of the few bright spots for the struggling Rays, while the Yankees counter with a scuffling Marcus Stroman (2-2, 6.09 ERA) who's been particularly vulnerable at Yankee Stadium with a bloated 7.11 ERA in five home starts.
Brandon Lowe's power surge continues to be a silver lining for Tampa, as he launched another homer in Wednesday's loss, giving him three home runs in his last six road games.
The Yankees' balanced attack has been their calling card - with five different players driving in runs during Wednesday's victory - helping them maintain their position as the AL's third-highest scoring offense despite Aaron Judge's absence.
With New York's 33-22 home record providing a significant edge over Tampa's 23-27 road mark, the series finale has all the makings of another tightly contested AL East battle where small details could make the difference.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays form
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays head to head
New York Yankees
50%
Tampa Bay Rays
50%
Jul 30, 2025
New York Yankees
5 : 4
Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 29, 2025
New York Yankees
7 : 5
Tampa Bay Rays
Jul 28, 2025
New York Yankees
2 : 4
Tampa Bay Rays
May 4, 2025
New York Yankees
5 : 7
Tampa Bay Rays
May 3, 2025
New York Yankees
2 : 3
Tampa Bay Rays
May 2, 2025
New York Yankees
3 : 0
Tampa Bay Rays
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