The red-hot Boston Red Sox welcome the Houston Astros to Fenway Park on Friday night, with the home team riding a surge that includes wins in nine of their last ten games at the iconic ballpark.
Hunter Brown takes the mound for the visiting Astros looking to continue his impressive season (9-5, 2.54 ERA), while Boston counters with Cooper Criswell as they aim to overcome Houston's recent dominance at Fenway where the Astros have won eight straight against winning AL East opponents.
With Boston's offense firing on all cylinders after a 13-1 thrashing of the Twins, this heavyweight clash could provide significant playoff implications for both 2025 contenders.
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros matchup, our predictive model gives the Astros a 55% chance of defeating the Sox.
Boston Red Sox: 45% win probability
- Defensive struggles (477 runs allowed, 8th worst in the American League)
- Recent inconsistency (WWLWW form shows volatility)
- Lower standing in competitive AL East (3rd in division despite similar record to Houston)
Houston Astros: 55% win probability
- Superior pitching (424 runs allowed, 3rd best in the American League)
- Better overall record (62-47, .569 win percentage ranks 3rd in AL)
- Strong road performance (consistently competing at the top of AL West division)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Boston Red Sox | Houston Astros | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros preview
The Red Sox and Astros clash at Fenway Park Friday night, with Boston riding momentum from their 13-1 thrashing of the Twins while Houston comes in after dispatching Washington 9-1.
Hunter Brown (9-5, 2.54 ERA) takes the mound for the visiting Astros, looking to continue his breakout season against a Red Sox offense that's been lighting up the scoreboard at home, where they've won nine of their last ten.
Boston's resurgence has been fueled by speedster Jarren Duran (116 hits, 18 stolen bases) and the power-hitting Wilyer Abreu (20 homers), though they'll face a stiff test against an Astros pitching staff that ranks 8th in MLB with a 3.69 ERA.
The odds favor Houston (-210), but Boston's dominance at Fenway makes them an intriguing home underdog, especially considering the Astros have dropped 10 of their last 11 night games against American League opponents.
Jose Altuve leads the Houston attack with 18 homers and 57 RBIs, while Alex Bregman and Trevor Story provide the pop for Boston in what should be a compelling series opener.
Recent history at Fenway could be telling – the Astros have won eight straight at the historic ballpark against winning AL East teams, setting up a fascinating clash of trends in this pivotal August matchup.
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros form
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros head to head
Boston Red Sox
50%
Houston Astros
50%
Aug 21, 2024
Houston Astros
1 : 4
Boston Red Sox
Aug 21, 2024
Houston Astros
5 : 6
Boston Red Sox
Aug 20, 2024
Houston Astros
5 : 4
Boston Red Sox
Aug 11, 2024
Boston Red Sox
2 : 10
Houston Astros
Aug 10, 2024
Boston Red Sox
4 : 5
Houston Astros
Aug 9, 2024
Boston Red Sox
4 : 8
Houston Astros
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