The Cleveland Guardians (54-54) will look to maintain their slim AL Central second-place advantage as they host the struggling Minnesota Twins (51-57) on Friday night at Progressive Field with both teams eyeing a crucial win to boost their Wild Card hopes.
The pitching matchup features Twins' ace Joe Ryan (10-5, 2.82 ERA) against Guardians' right-hander Gavin Williams (6-4, 3.51 ERA), setting up what could be a low-scoring affair between two teams separated by just 3 games in the standings.
With Minnesota's power hitter Byron Buxton sidelined on the 10-day IL and Cleveland coming off a confidence-building series win over Colorado, this divisional clash could significantly impact both teams' playoff trajectories.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins matchup, our predictive model gives the Twins a 62.67% chance of defeating the Guardians.
Cleveland Guardians: 37.33% win probability
- Inconsistent recent form (WWLLW pattern suggests vulnerability in maintaining winning streaks)
- Offensive struggles (424 goals for is one of the lowest among playoff-contending teams)
- Home field advantage not translating to wins (Their .500 overall record indicates they're not capitalizing on home games effectively)
Minnesota Twins: 62.67% win probability
- Better defensive efficiency (484 runs allowed compared to Guardians' 453 despite similar games played)
- Stronger offensive production (451 goals for versus Guardians' 424, showing more consistent run generation)
- Better positioned for momentum shift (Guardians' recent form of WWLLW indicates inconsistency that Twins can exploit)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | |
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins preview
The Cleveland Guardians will look to build on their recent momentum against the Colorado Rockies when they host division rival Minnesota Twins on Friday night at Progressive Field.
Joe Ryan brings his impressive 2.82 ERA and pinpoint control (137 strikeouts to just 24 walks) to the mound for the struggling Twins, who have dropped four of their last five games and sit 5.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot.
Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams, who despite solid recent outings (three or fewer runs in his last four starts), has seen the team lose four of his last five appearances.
The Guardians hold a slight edge in the standings at 54-54, sitting nine games behind Detroit in the AL Central but just 2.5 games out of the Wild Card race, while the absence of All-Star Byron Buxton (10-day IL with ribcage injury) leaves a significant power void in Minnesota's lineup.
Jose Ramirez continues to be Cleveland's offensive catalyst, batting .298 with 21 home runs, 56 RBIs and 31 stolen bases, while the Twins will rely heavily on Trevor Larnach (13 HRs, 43 RBIs) to generate offense.
These division rivals last met in late April with Cleveland taking three of four at home, setting the stage for another competitive series as both teams fight to stay relevant in the playoff hunt.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins form
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins head to head
Cleveland Guardians
67%
Minnesota Twins
33%
May 21, 2025
Minnesota Twins
1 : 5
Cleveland Guardians
May 21, 2025
Minnesota Twins
6 : 5
Cleveland Guardians
May 1, 2025
Cleveland Guardians
4 : 3
Minnesota Twins
Apr 30, 2025
Cleveland Guardians
4 : 2
Minnesota Twins
Apr 29, 2025
Cleveland Guardians
2 : 1
Minnesota Twins
Apr 28, 2025
Cleveland Guardians
1 : 11
Minnesota Twins
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