The struggling Miami Marlins (52-55) welcome the New York Yankees (59-49) to loanDepot park on Friday in a compelling interleague matchup featuring a significant pitching disparity with Carlos Rodon facing Janson Junk.
The Yankees enter as heavy favorites (-196) on the back of their potent offense that ranks 3rd in MLB with 5.2 runs per game, while Miami's pitching staff has surrendered 4.73 runs per nine innings (24th in the league).
With New York's superior bullpen efficiency (69% save rate compared to Miami's 61.4%) and statistical advantages across the board, the Yankees hold a commanding 61% win probability according to predictive models.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees matchup, our predictive model gives the Yankees a 70.5% chance of defeating the Marlins.
Miami Marlins: 29.5% win probability
- Struggling defense (500 runs allowed, 10th worst in National League)
- Inconsistent performance (0.486 win percentage, hovering near .500 baseball)
- Run production concerns (453 runs scored, among the bottom half in the NL)
New York Yankees: 70.5% win probability
- Powerful offense (564 runs scored, 2nd highest in the American League)
- Strong recent form (WWWLW in last 5 games, showing momentum)
- Road efficiency (60-49 overall record compared to Marlins' 52-55)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Miami Marlins | New York Yankees | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees preview
The Yankees arrive in Miami with their powerful offense clicking, averaging over five runs per game behind a formidable .451 slugging percentage that's helped them weather inconsistent pitching performances this season.
Carlos Rodon takes the mound for New York looking to improve on his solid career numbers, though he'll be tested by a Marlins squad that's shown they can produce at the plate despite their middle-of-the-pack offensive ranking.
Miami counters with Janson Junk, who brings a concerning 4.68 career ERA and has allowed nearly 11 hits per nine innings in his big-league tenure – a potentially troubling matchup against New York's homer-happy lineup that's already launched 172 long balls this year.
The contrast in bullpen reliability could prove decisive, with the Yankees converting 69% of save opportunities compared to Miami's 61.4%, though both teams have been surprisingly similar defensively with matching .985 fielding percentages.
Despite sitting seven games over .500, the visiting Yankees have shown vulnerability on the road this season and will need to navigate the spacious confines of loanDepot park, where the home team has managed to stay competitive despite a sub-.500 record.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees form
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees head to head
Miami Marlins
40%
New York Yankees
60%
Mar 25, 2025
Miami Marlins
4 : 2
New York Yankees
Apr 10, 2024
New York Yankees
2 : 5
Miami Marlins
Apr 9, 2024
New York Yankees
3 : 2
Miami Marlins
Apr 8, 2024
New York Yankees
7 : 0
Miami Marlins
Mar 4, 2024
Miami Marlins
2 : 3
New York Yankees
Feb 29, 2024
New York Yankees
0 : 0
Miami Marlins
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