MLB Best Bets Today: Expert MLB Betting Picks for 08/01/2025

The Cincinnati Reds have a prime opportunity to bounce back against the struggling Atlanta Braves in Friday's afternoon matchup. Despite a tough extra-innings loss on Thursday night, the Reds will hand the ball to Brady Singer, who was excellent in his last outing, going 7.1 innings against the Rays while allowing just one earned run on three hits.

The Braves, meanwhile, will counter with Bryce Elder, who enters with a concerning 6.29 ERA and 1.615 WHIP. Elder has been particularly vulnerable lately, posting an alarming 8.16 ERA and 2.09 WHIP over his last three starts, suggesting the Reds' offense should find success today.

Cincinnati's pitching has been significantly better than Atlanta's recently, with the Reds sporting a team ERA of 3.83 compared to the Braves' bloated 6.89 over their last dozen games. Offensively, both teams are nearly identical, with the Reds averaging 5.1 runs per game compared to Atlanta's 5.2 over their last 12 contests.

The Reds are making a playoff push and have been active at the trade deadline, acquiring pieces like Ke'Bryan Hayes and Zack Littell. This level of investment signals their commitment to making a postseason run, while Atlanta appears to be playing out the string of a disappointing season.

With Cincinnati's superior pitching and the Braves' continued struggles on the road (20-36 away record), the Reds should capitalize on their home-field advantage at Great American Ball Park. Given Elder's recent form and the Reds' playoff aspirations, Cincinnati offers solid value at this price.

The Detroit Tigers present excellent value as road underdogs against the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday night. Detroit's offense has come alive recently, averaging 8.5 runs per game over their last four contests after a sluggish start to the second half.

Jack Flaherty takes the mound for the Tigers looking to build on his last start where he picked up his first win since June 6th, tossing six strong innings against the Blue Jays. While Flaherty's overall numbers (6-10, 4.51 ERA) don't jump off the page, he matches up favorably against Phillies' starter Ranger Suarez in this particular spot.

Although Suarez has been reliable for Philadelphia with an 8-4 record and 2.59 ERA, he faces a significant challenge against a Detroit lineup that absolutely crushes left-handed pitching. The Tigers lead the majors with a .265 batting average against southpaws, giving them a substantial edge in this matchup.

The Tigers have momentum on their side with four straight wins and they're tied for the best record in the American League at 64-46. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is coming off a tough series loss to the Chicago White Sox, suggesting they might be vulnerable.

With Detroit's offense firing on all cylinders and their clear advantage against left-handed pitching, the Tigers offer tremendous value as road underdogs. Their recent form indicates they've shaken off whatever funk plagued them earlier, making them a smart bet to continue their winning ways.

The Milwaukee Brewers bring their NL Central-leading record into Washington on Friday night as they open a three-game set against the basement-dwelling Nationals. Despite dropping their last game to the Cubs, the Brewers have been solid on the road and have a clear pitching advantage in this matchup.

Jose Quintana takes the mound for Milwaukee sporting a respectable 7-4 record with a 3.50 ERA. The veteran lefty has been particularly effective against Washington throughout his career, posting an impressive 4-1 record with a 1.91 ERA in eight previous starts against the Nationals. Even more encouraging, Quintana owns a perfect 1-0 record with a microscopic 0.90 ERA in three career starts at Nationals Park.

Washington is mired in another lost season and continued selling at the trade deadline, shipping off valuable bullpen arms Kyle Finnegan and Mike Soroka. The Nationals' depleted roster sits 17.5 games out of first place in the NL East and shows few signs of turning things around.

Mitchell Parker starts for Washington with a concerning 7-10 record and 4.91 ERA. More troubling is his recent form, as he's posted a bloated 6.06 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over his last three starts. Against a Milwaukee offense that averages a robust 5.40 runs per game on the road, Parker could be in for a long night.

With Milwaukee fighting to maintain their division lead while Washington plays out the string, this matchup heavily favors the Brewers. Quintana's career success against the Nationals, combined with Milwaukee's superior offense, makes the visitors a strong play despite the road favorite status.

Friday's matchup between the Giants and Mets sets up as a classic pitcher's duel with both teams sending out effective left-handers. The Mets will start David Peterson, who has been outstanding at home this season, posting a stellar 5-0 record with a 1.91 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in ten starts at Citi Field.

The Giants counter with Robbie Ray, who just faced the Mets in his last start and held them to just two runs on five hits over 5.2 innings. Ray has been solid on the road this year with a 5-3 record and 3.40 ERA in ten away starts, suggesting he should be comfortable in this rematch.

These teams just played a low-scoring affair when these same pitchers faced off on July 26th, combining for only three runs. Neither lineup has excelled against left-handed pitching this season, which further supports the under play.

Both bullpens rank in the top ten in MLB, providing quality relief options to maintain a low-scoring game in the later innings. The recent trends also favor the under, as five of the Mets' last seven games have stayed under the total, with a similar pattern for the Giants.

With two effective lefty starters, struggling offenses, strong bullpens, and clear statistical trends all pointing in the same direction, the under 7.5 offers excellent value in what should be a tightly contested, low-scoring affair in Queens.

Friday's matchup between the Pirates and Rockies at Coors Field features an inflated total that presents value on the under despite the hitter-friendly venue. While Coors Field typically boosts offensive production, this particular matchup features two of the league's least potent offenses that struggle to generate runs, especially the visiting Pirates.

Pittsburgh's road offense has been anemic this season, slashing just .211/.279/.313 with a .592 OPS while scoring a league-worst 2.89 runs per game away from home. Even the elevation boost of Coors Field may not be enough to significantly improve these dismal numbers.

Andrew Heaney takes the mound for the Pirates and has shown the ability to manage Coors Field in previous outings. While his overall road numbers are concerning (1-6, 6.45 ERA), the Rockies' offense ranks just 18th in home scoring at 4.29 runs per game.

Colorado counters with Antonio Senzatela, who has certainly struggled this season (4-14, 6.68 ERA). However, the Pirates' offensive limitations may help mitigate his vulnerabilities. The under has hit in eight of the Pirates' last ten games and seven of the Rockies' last eight games against NL Central opponents, showing a clear trend.

With Pittsburgh's severe road offensive struggles, Heaney's ability to manage Coors Field in the past, and strong under trends for both teams, this inflated 11.5 total offers value on the under despite the reputation of the ballpark.

The San Diego Padres are riding a five-game winning streak and look primed to extend it against a struggling St. Louis Cardinals team on Friday night. The Padres have been one of baseball's hottest teams and just completed a sweep of the Mets, showcasing their championship aspirations.

Nick Pivetta takes the mound for San Diego sporting an impressive 10-3 record with a 2.81 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Even more compelling is his dominance at home, where he's a perfect 6-0 with a stellar 2.07 ERA in 11 starts this season. The Cardinals' offense, which has been shut out in back-to-back games, faces a monumental challenge against Pivetta.

St. Louis recently dealt away key bullpen pieces at the trade deadline, shipping closer Ryan Hensley and lefty Steven Matz for prospects - a clear sign they're focused on the future rather than contending this season. This weakened bullpen will likely be exposed against a potent Padres lineup.

The Padres, meanwhile, have been aggressive buyers at the deadline, adding talented arms like JP Sears and hard-throwing closer Mason Miller from the Athletics. These additions bolster an already strong pitching staff that boasts MLB's best bullpen ERA at 2.97.

With the Padres playing exceptional baseball at home (34-18 record), the Cardinals struggling offensively, and a significant pitching advantage with Pivetta on the mound, San Diego offers solid value despite being favored. Their recent deadline acquisitions only strengthen the case for backing the Padres in this matchup.