The New York Mets (62-47) will look to snap a three-game losing streak as they host the slumping San Francisco Giants (54-55) at Citi Field on Friday night in a pitching duel between Robbie Ray and David Peterson.
The Mets, who swept San Francisco just last week, aim to maintain their position atop the NL East despite coming off a surprising sweep by San Diego.
Meanwhile, the Giants enter on a six-game skid and desperately need their ace Ray (9-5, 2.93 ERA) to halt their freefall against a Mets team that's dominated at home with a 37-16 record this season.
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants matchup, our predictive model gives the Mets a 67.67% chance of defeating the Giants.
New York Mets: 67.67% win probability
- Elite run prevention (Allowing only 430 runs, 4th best in MLB)
- Strong divisional position (1st in NL East with .569 win percentage)
- Significantly better recent form than opponent (Mets 2-3 in last 5 vs Giants' 0-5)
San Francisco Giants: 32.33% win probability
- Ice-cold recent performance (0-5 in last five games, worst current form in NL)
- Below average run production (443 runs scored ranks 20th in MLB)
- Road disadvantage (9th place in NL with .495 win percentage vs Mets' 4th place .569)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
New York Mets | San Francisco Giants | |
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New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants preview
The Mets return to Citi Field looking to snap a three-game skid after being swept by the Padres, while the slumping Giants arrive having lost six straight, including a recent sweep at the hands of these same Mets.
Friday's pitching matchup features two southpaws who've been dealing lately—David Peterson (7-4, 2.83 ERA) for New York against San Francisco's Robbie Ray (9-5, 2.93 ERA), with both starters allowing two runs or fewer in four of their last five outings.
The Mets' dominance at home (37-16) could prove decisive, especially with Francisco Lindor riding a hot streak and Juan Soto having homered in his last three games as a home favorite against the Giants.
Pete Alonso continues to power New York's offense with 22 homers and 81 RBIs, while the Giants' lineup has struggled to produce lately, managing just three runs total in their series finale against the Pirates.
Despite their recent stumbles, the Mets still hold first place in the NL East, while San Francisco sits third in the NL West with their playoff hopes fading.
This marks the fourth meeting between these teams in the past two weeks, with New York having swept their previous three-game set.
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants form


New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants head to head

New York Mets
67%

San Francisco Giants
33%
Jul 27, 2025
San Francisco Giants
3 : 5
New York Mets
Jul 27, 2025
San Francisco Giants
1 : 2
New York Mets
Jul 26, 2025
San Francisco Giants
1 : 8
New York Mets
May 26, 2024
New York Mets
4 : 3
San Francisco Giants
May 25, 2024
New York Mets
2 : 7
San Francisco Giants
May 24, 2024
New York Mets
7 : 8
San Francisco Giants
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