The San Diego Padres (-132) look to strengthen their playoff position as they host the St. Louis Cardinals (+110) at Petco Park on Friday night in a matchup featuring Nick Pivetta against Matthew Liberatore on the mound.
With San Diego's elite pitching staff boasting the fewest hits allowed in MLB and the Cardinals struggling on the road this season, the odds favor the home team in what projects to be a low-scoring affair with a total set at 8 runs.
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals prediction: who will win?
For tonight's San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals matchup, our predictive model gives the Padres a 65.5% chance of defeating the Cardinals.
San Diego Padres: 65.5% win probability
- Superior recent form (WWWWW in last five games, the only team in the league with a perfect record recently)
- Strong defensive efficiency (413 runs allowed, second-best in the National League)
- Higher overall winning percentage (0.550 win rate compared to Cardinals' 0.500)
St. Louis Cardinals: 34.5% win probability
- Poor recent form (LLWLL in last five games, showing inconsistency)
- Road game disadvantage (facing a Padres team that's been surging at home)
- Defensive vulnerability (492 runs allowed compared to Padres' 413, ranking middle of the pack in the NL)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals preview
The surging Padres (60-49) look to strengthen their playoff position as they welcome the middling Cardinals (55-55) to Petco Park on Friday night.
San Diego holds a decisive pitching advantage, boasting MLB's best staff in hits allowed and third-best ERA at 3.55, while St. Louis sits middle-of-the-pack with a 4.17 ERA.
Veteran Nick Pivetta takes the mound for the Padres, bringing his career 1,270 strikeouts across 1,150 innings against Matthew Liberatore, who's still finding his footing in the majors with a 4.65 career ERA.
The Cardinals' offense has shown more punch this season, averaging 4.4 runs per game (14th in MLB) compared to San Diego's 4.08 (24th), though both teams are batting an identical .250.
St. Louis will need to overcome their recent road struggles and the Padres' defensive efficiency (3rd in MLB) to pull off the upset at Petco, where the home team enters as -132 favorites.
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals form
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals head to head
San Diego Padres
33%
St. Louis Cardinals
67%
Jul 27, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals
2 : 9
San Diego Padres
Jul 26, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals
1 : 3
San Diego Padres
Jul 25, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals
3 : 0
San Diego Padres
Jul 24, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals
9 : 7
San Diego Padres
Aug 29, 2024
St. Louis Cardinals
4 : 1
San Diego Padres
Aug 28, 2024
St. Louis Cardinals
4 : 3
San Diego Padres
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