The Milwaukee Brewers (64-44) will look to extend their solid season when they face the struggling Washington Nationals (44-64) at Nationals Park on Friday, with Jose Quintana set to duel against Mitchell Parker on the mound.
Milwaukee enters as the clear favorite (-150) behind their potent offense that ranks 7th in MLB with 4.8 runs per game, while Washington's pitching staff has struggled with a 5.14 ERA (ranking 28th in baseball).
With the Brewers' superior pitching (3.63 team ERA, 5th in MLB) facing a Nationals lineup that has been middle-of-the-pack offensively, Milwaukee appears well-positioned to secure another victory in this matchup.
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers matchup, our predictive model gives the Brewers a 71% chance of defeating the Nationals.
Washington Nationals: 29% win probability
- Poor overall record with just 44 wins in 108 games (0.407 win percentage)
- Major defensive struggles allowing 573 runs (second-worst in National League)
- Division basement dweller sitting last in NL East, 18 games behind division leader
Milwaukee Brewers: 71% win probability
- League-leading position with 64 wins in 108 games (0.593 win percentage)
- Superior run differential with 517 runs scored vs 422 allowed (+95)
- Consistent recent performance with 4 wins in their last 5 games (LWWWL form)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Washington Nationals | Milwaukee Brewers | |
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| Moneyline |
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers preview
The Milwaukee Brewers continue their East Coast swing Friday night, bringing their formidable 64-44 record into Nationals Park where they'll face a struggling Washington team that sits 20 games under .500.
Jose Quintana takes the mound for the Brewers looking to build on his career 109-107 record, while the Nationals counter with Mitchell Parker, who has compiled a modest 14-20 mark in his big league tenure.
Milwaukee's offense has been clicking lately, averaging 4.8 runs per game (7th in MLB) with a solid .324 on-base percentage and 104 home runs on the season.
Washington's pitching staff has been their Achilles heel, sporting a troublesome 5.14 ERA (ranking near the bottom of the league) while allowing 5.44 runs per game.
The Brewers' bullpen could prove decisive in this matchup, having converted 71.4% of their save opportunities compared to Washington's more vulnerable 60% conversion rate.
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers form
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers head to head
Washington Nationals
33%
Milwaukee Brewers
67%
Jul 13, 2025
Milwaukee Brewers
8 : 1
Washington Nationals
Jul 12, 2025
Milwaukee Brewers
6 : 5
Washington Nationals
Jul 12, 2025
Milwaukee Brewers
8 : 3
Washington Nationals
Aug 4, 2024
Washington Nationals
4 : 3
Milwaukee Brewers
Aug 3, 2024
Washington Nationals
6 : 4
Milwaukee Brewers
Aug 2, 2024
Washington Nationals
3 : 8
Milwaukee Brewers
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