The Boston Red Sox (59-51) look to continue their hot streak, having won four of their last five games, as they host the AL West-leading Houston Astros (62-47) in a pivotal Saturday showdown at Fenway Park.
While Houston has dropped five of their last seven contests, the pitching matchup features Colton Gordon (4-3, 4.74 ERA) against Walker Buehler (6-6, 5.72 ERA) in what could become a high-scoring affair.
With both teams missing key players—including Houston sluggers Yordan Alvarez and Isaac Paredes—the Red Sox aim to capitalize on their fourth-ranked offense and extend their impressive 6-1 record against AL opponents.
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros matchup, our predictive model gives the Astros a 54% chance of defeating the Sox.
Boston Red Sox: 46% win probability
- Recent inconsistency (3-2 in last 5 games compared to a more established pattern for Houston)
- Higher runs allowed (478 compared to Houston's 426)
- Lower win percentage (.541 vs Houston's .564 despite playing same number of games)
Houston Astros: 54% win probability
- Superior run prevention (426 runs allowed vs Boston's 478)
- Strong divisional position (1st in AL West with .564 win percentage)
- Better overall consistency (higher position in league standings at 3rd vs Boston's 5th)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Boston Red Sox | Houston Astros | |
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Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros preview
The surging Red Sox welcome the AL West-leading Astros to Fenway Park on Saturday afternoon, with Boston riding momentum after winning four of their last five including a 13-1 drubbing of Minnesota.
Houston's recent five-game skid appears to be behind them after back-to-back wins, though they'll continue to feel the absence of slugger Yordan Alvarez and Isaac Paredes in their lineup.
The pitching matchup features a tale of two trajectories, with Boston's Walker Buehler finding his rhythm over four straight solid outings despite an inflated season ERA, while Houston's Colton Gordon comes in looking to bounce back from a rough outing against Oakland.
The Red Sox offense has been clicking as one of the league's most productive units, sitting fourth in runs scored behind balanced production from Trevor Story (17 HR, 65 RBI) and Wilyer Abreu (team-leading 20 homers).
Houston counters with their trademark pitching prowess (8th in ERA), though they'll need Jose Altuve and Christian Walker to carry the offensive load with key power bats sidelined.
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros form
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros head to head
Boston Red Sox
67%
Houston Astros
33%
Aug 1, 2025
Boston Red Sox
2 : 1
Houston Astros
Aug 21, 2024
Houston Astros
1 : 4
Boston Red Sox
Aug 21, 2024
Houston Astros
5 : 6
Boston Red Sox
Aug 20, 2024
Houston Astros
5 : 4
Boston Red Sox
Aug 11, 2024
Boston Red Sox
2 : 10
Houston Astros
Aug 10, 2024
Boston Red Sox
4 : 5
Houston Astros
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