The struggling Baltimore Orioles (50-59) face a tough test against the playoff-contending Chicago Cubs (63-45) at Wrigley Field on Saturday, with both teams sending shaky starters to the mound in Tomoyuki Sugano and Ben Brown.
This interleague matchup features two clubs on different trajectories - the Cubs cooling off after a hot first half while the Orioles try to salvage their disappointing season despite winning 6 of their last 10 games.
With both pitchers sporting ERAs above 4.00 and Chicago's offense averaging over 5 runs per game at home, expect a high-scoring affair at the Friendly Confines.
Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles matchup, our predictive model gives the Cubs a 71% chance of defeating the O's.
Chicago Cubs: 71% win probability
- Potent offense (571 runs scored, 2nd most in MLB)
- Excellent home field advantage (2nd in NL with 64-45 record)
- Strong momentum (WWLLW recent form compared to Orioles' LLWWW)
Baltimore Orioles: 29% win probability
- Porous defense (550 runs allowed, 5th worst in AL)
- Weak road performance (13th in AL with 50-60 record)
- Struggling in divisional play (5th place in AL East with .455 win percentage)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Chicago Cubs | Baltimore Orioles | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles preview
The Cubs bring their hot-and-cold act to Wrigley Field on Saturday as they host the struggling Orioles in an intriguing interleague matchup.
Baltimore, hoping to salvage something from a disappointing season, sends Japanese veteran Tomoyuki Sugano (8-5, 4.38 ERA) to the mound fresh off an impressive eight-strikeout performance against Colorado.
Chicago counters with Ben Brown, whose troubling 6.22 ERA and bottom-ten percentile barrel rate could spell trouble against an Orioles lineup desperate to find its road form.
The Cubs have cooled considerably since their blistering first half, going just 6-6 since the All-Star break, while Baltimore shows signs of life having won three of four against Toronto.
Wrigley Field has been a fortress for the Cubs' offense, which averages a robust 5.1 runs per game at home—a concerning stat for an Orioles team whose pitching staff ranks 25th in bullpen ERA.
Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles form
Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles head to head
Chicago Cubs
67%
Baltimore Orioles
33%
Aug 2, 2025
Chicago Cubs
3 : 4
Baltimore Orioles
Aug 1, 2025
Chicago Cubs
1 : 0
Baltimore Orioles
Jul 11, 2024
Baltimore Orioles
0 : 8
Chicago Cubs
Jul 10, 2024
Baltimore Orioles
0 : 4
Chicago Cubs
Jul 9, 2024
Baltimore Orioles
2 : 9
Chicago Cubs
Jun 18, 2023
Chicago Cubs
3 : 6
Baltimore Orioles
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