In a matchup of struggling teams, the Pittsburgh Pirates (47-62) head to Coors Field to face the MLB-worst Colorado Rockies (28-80) with ace Paul Skenes providing a significant pitching advantage against Austin Gomber.
The Pirates' stellar rookie Skenes (2.46 expected ERA, 146 Ks in 133 innings) looks to dominate Colorado's weak lineup while the equally anemic Pittsburgh offense hopes to capitalize against Gomber, who has surrendered 29 runs in just 38 innings this season.
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates matchup, our predictive model gives the Pirates a 77.5% chance of defeating the Rockies.
Colorado Rockies: 22.5% win probability
- Worst record in MLB (29-80, .266 winning percentage is substantially below league average)
- Catastrophic run differential (405 goals for vs 681 goals against, worst in MLB by a wide margin)
- Inconsistent recent performance (WLLWL form shows inability to build momentum)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 77.5% win probability
- Recent momentum (LWWWW form in last 5 games showing significant improvement)
- Strong defensive improvement (Only 437 goals against compared to Rockies' 681)
- Road advantage against MLB's worst home team (Pirates' 47-63 record significantly outperforms Rockies' 29-80 mark)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Colorado Rockies | Pittsburgh Pirates | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates preview
Two of baseball's most struggling franchises meet at Coors Field when Paul Skenes and the Pirates face the Rockies in what has become a battle to avoid baseball's basement.
Skenes has been the lone bright spot in Pittsburgh's forgettable season, posting a dazzling 2.46 expected ERA with 146 strikeouts across 133 innings while limiting opponents to weak contact.
The Pirates' anemic offense (MLB-worst 3.39 runs per game) will face Colorado's Austin Gomber, who has been hit hard this season with a troubling 5.31 expected ERA and opponents slugging .542 against him.
Despite Pittsburgh having the NL's worst record in the Central, they enter as favorites against a Rockies team that's stumbled to an MLB-worst 28-80 mark.
Both teams feature underwhelming lineups, with the Pirates' Tommy Pham and Oneil Cruz and the Rockies' Mickey Moniak and Hunter Goodman standing as rare offensive bright spots.
The matchup pits Pittsburgh's surprisingly effective pitching staff (3.68 ERA, 7th in MLB) against Colorado's league-worst unit (5.65 ERA) in what oddsmakers have set with a 9-run total despite the game being played at hitter-friendly Coors Field.
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates form
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates head to head
Colorado Rockies
17%
Pittsburgh Pirates
83%
Aug 2, 2025
Colorado Rockies
17 : 16
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jun 16, 2024
Colorado Rockies
2 : 8
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jun 16, 2024
Colorado Rockies
16 : 4
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jun 15, 2024
Colorado Rockies
2 : 5
Pittsburgh Pirates
May 5, 2024
Pittsburgh Pirates
5 : 3
Colorado Rockies
May 4, 2024
Pittsburgh Pirates
1 : 0
Colorado Rockies
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