The New York Mets will look to bounce back and reclaim their spot atop the NL East as they host the San Francisco Giants in a crucial Saturday matchup at Citi Field, with ace Kodai Senga (7-3, 2.00 ERA) taking the mound against Giants rookie Kai-Wei Teng making his first career start.
After dropping three straight games, including Friday's extra-inning heartbreaker that knocked them half a game behind the Phillies, the Mets' powerful lineup featuring Pete Alonso and Juan Soto will face a significant pitching mismatch that oddsmakers have recognized by installing New York as -128 favorites.
Both bullpens could play decisive roles, with the Mets' recently bolstered relief corps potentially being the difference in a game that has playoff implications for a New York team trying to stop their skid.
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants matchup, our predictive model gives the Mets a 80% chance of defeating the Giants.
New York Mets: 80% win probability
- Elite offensive production (476 runs scored, 5th best in National League)
- Strong run prevention (434 runs allowed, 3rd best in NL)
- Excellent division standing (2nd place in NL East with 62-48 record)
San Francisco Giants: 20% win probability
- Poor recent form (WLLLL in last five games shows significant struggling)
- Road game disadvantage (playing away against a strong home team)
- Mediocre run differential (447 runs scored vs 441 allowed indicates average performance)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| New York Mets | San Francisco Giants | |
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New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants preview
Fresh off a gritty 4-3 extra-innings victory, the Giants send rookie Kai-Wei Teng to make his first career MLB start against a Mets team that's suddenly slipped out of first place in the NL East.
New York counters with Kodai Senga (7-3, 2.00 ERA), whose dominant arsenal and ability to suppress hard contact could spell trouble for a San Francisco offense ranking 25th in runs scored.
The Mets' recent offensive struggles—now losers of three straight—have contributed to their half-game deficit behind Philadelphia despite solid production from stars Juan Soto and Pete Alonso.
While the Giants finally snapped a four-game skid to reach the .500 mark, they'll need timely hitting from Jung Hoo Lee and Patrick Bailey to overcome a revamped Mets bullpen that's become a genuine strength.
This Saturday afternoon matchup at Citi Field has major implications for both clubs, with New York desperate to reclaim divisional momentum and San Francisco hoping their rookie pitcher can deliver a shocking series win.
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants form
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