The San Diego Padres (60-49) look to continue their playoff push as they host the struggling St. Louis Cardinals (55-55) at Petco Park, with Randy Vasquez seeking his fifth straight quality start after dominating the Cards last weekend.
St. Louis faces an uphill battle without injured All-Star Nolan Arenado and sends Michael McGreevy to the mound hoping for a bounce-back performance after the Padres tagged him for seven runs in their recent matchup.
With San Diego's MLB-best bullpen and home record (34-18) giving them a significant edge, the Padres' -145 moneyline reflects their 57% win probability in what could be another low-scoring affair.
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals prediction: who will win?
For tonight's San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals matchup, our predictive model gives the Padres a 69% chance of defeating the Cards.
San Diego Padres: 69% win probability
- Red-hot form (WWWWW in recent games showing perfect momentum)
- Elite run prevention (Only 414 runs allowed, third-best in National League)
- Superior win percentage (.555 compared to Cardinals' .495)
St. Louis Cardinals: 31% win probability
- Poor recent form (LLLWL shows consistent struggles in recent games)
- Road game disadvantage (Facing a Padres team with home field advantage)
- Defensive vulnerability (496 runs allowed is middle-of-the-pack in NL)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | |
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| Moneyline |
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals preview
The surging Padres (60-49) look to strengthen their playoff position as they host the struggling Cardinals (55-55) at Petco Park on Saturday night, with San Diego sitting just two games behind the Dodgers in the NL West race.
Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.65 ERA) takes the mound for the Padres, looking to build on his impressive streak of allowing two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts, including a 3-1 victory over these same Cardinals last weekend.
St. Louis, already facing an uphill battle at 5.5 games out of a wild card spot, will be without All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado (shoulder), further complicating their fading postseason hopes.
The Cardinals counter with Michael McGreevy (2-2, 4.91 ERA), who was shelled by the Padres for seven runs in his last outing but has shown promise on the road (1.50 ERA) and in night games (2.82 ERA).
Manny Machado continues to power San Diego's offense with a scorching .302 average and 20 homers, while the Padres' pitching staff boasts MLB's third-best ERA at 3.55 and the league's top bullpen (2.98 ERA).
With the teams having split a four-game set in St. Louis last week, this rematch could prove pivotal as the Padres aim to solidify their October ambitions while the Cardinals fight to keep their season relevant.
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals form
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals head to head
San Diego Padres
50%
St. Louis Cardinals
50%
Aug 2, 2025
San Diego Padres
4 : 1
St. Louis Cardinals
Jul 27, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals
2 : 9
San Diego Padres
Jul 26, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals
1 : 3
San Diego Padres
Jul 25, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals
3 : 0
San Diego Padres
Jul 24, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals
9 : 7
San Diego Padres
Aug 29, 2024
St. Louis Cardinals
4 : 1
San Diego Padres
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