MLB Best Bets Today: Expert MLB Betting Picks for 08/03/2025

The Astros and Red Sox matchup shapes up to be a classic pitcher's duel with Framber Valdez facing Lucas Giolito. Valdez has been remarkably consistent, winning his last 10 decisions dating back to May 2, and has historically performed well against Boston with a 3-1 record and 1.96 ERA in career appearances against them.

Giolito, despite some recent struggles, has been particularly effective at home this season, posting three straight scoreless starts at Fenway Park. This home comfort gives him an edge despite his overall 5.87 ERA in his last three outings.

The opening game of this series was a low-scoring 2-1 affair that went to extra innings, suggesting these teams are locked into a pitching-focused series. With just three total runs scored in the opener and two quality starters on the mound Sunday, runs should be at a premium.

Both bullpens have been reliable lately, which adds another layer of protection for the under. Even if the starters don't go deep, the high-leverage arms should be able to keep scoring down in the later innings.

The drama surrounding sign-stealing accusations between these teams might actually benefit pitchers who will be extra careful with their sequences. Look for both Valdez and Giolito to keep the scoring down in this early start, with the game finishing under the total of 8 runs.

The Brewers are bringing the heat with their young phenom Jacob Misiorowski on the mound. The All-Star hurler boasts a solid 4-1 record with a 2.70 ERA while consistently throwing over 100 mph. Despite his tendency to pitch shorter outings, he's shown remarkable ability to adjust mid-game, as evidenced by his recent start where he gave up 3 runs in the first inning but then didn't allow any more hits through 4 innings.

Milwaukee's offense has been absolutely scorching, batting an impressive .347 over their last 6 games with an astounding 40 hits in just the past 2 nights. This red-hot batting lineup should give them a significant edge against the Nationals' Brad Lord, who despite some decent recent numbers, hasn't faced an offense of this caliber.

The Nationals' bullpen represents a major liability, posting the worst bullpen ERA in MLB at 5.72. In just the last two nights alone, the Nats relief pitchers have surrendered 9 earned runs, which sets up perfectly for the Brewers to capitalize in the later innings.

Milwaukee has established clear momentum in this series, amassing 24 runs while winning both previous games. With their combination of powerful hitting and solid pitching, they're primed to complete the sweep on Sunday.

The Brewers' well-rounded performance makes them the safer option when considering all pitching aspects - from their starter to their bullpen. Their dominant offensive showing coupled with Misiorowski's electric stuff should lead them to their third consecutive victory in this series.

The Kansas City Royals have been showing impressive offensive prowess lately, averaging 5.3 runs per game over their last 13 contests. This gives them a significant edge against a Toronto Blue Jays team that has struggled with their pitching, posting a concerning 5.43 ERA over their last 15 games.

Seth Lugo takes the mound for the Royals with an 8-5 record and solid 3.03 ERA, while Chris Bassitt (11-5, 4.24 ERA) goes for the Blue Jays. Though both pitchers have shown some inconsistency in recent starts—Lugo with a 5.09 ERA and Bassitt with a 5.06 ERA in their last three outings—Bassitt appears more vulnerable against KC's hot bats.

The Royals' ability to bounce back is noteworthy, as they look to rebound from Saturday's loss and secure a series win. Their offensive tools match up favorably against Bassitt, who hasn't been sharp recently despite his positive win-loss record.

Perhaps most telling is Toronto's inability to demonstrate that their pitching issues are behind them. The Blue Jays bullpen presents a particular weakness that Kansas City should be able to exploit after getting to Bassitt early.

At +120, the Royals offer excellent value as they aim to take advantage of a struggling Blue Jays pitching staff. With their consistently productive offense and Lugo's reliability, Kansas City is positioned well to claim the series victory on Sunday.

The Miami Marlins enter Sunday's game with tremendous momentum, having won four straight games including the first two of this series against the Yankees. This surge has brought them to the .500 mark and within striking distance of a wild card spot, giving them plenty of motivation for the series finale.

Edward Cabrera has been exceptional for Miami, particularly at home where he's allowed just 4 runs over his last 5 starts spanning 31.2 innings. These impressive home numbers have come against quality teams like the Padres, Brewers, and Phillies, suggesting he should fare well against a Yankees lineup that was shut out in their previous game.

For the Yankees, Luis Gil makes his season debut after recovering from a lat strain. His limited workload in his most recent Triple-A start (just 4.1 innings) indicates he'll likely have a short outing on Sunday, forcing New York to rely heavily on a bullpen that has shown vulnerability lately, as evidenced by their collapse in the first game of this series.

The Yankees' offensive struggles add another layer of concern, as they're batting just .230 over their past 7 games. This cold streak makes them particularly vulnerable against Cabrera's quality pitching at home.

With the combination of Cabrera's home dominance, Gil's questionable stamina in his season debut, and clear momentum favoring Miami, the Marlins represent excellent value to complete the sweep and continue their playoff push.

The Rangers have been consistently hitting the over with Jacob deGrom on the mound, going over the total in four of his last five starts this season. Despite deGrom's reputation as an elite pitcher, Texas has been providing ample run support during his outings.

Seattle's Logan Evans has struggled recently, allowing six runs in his last start against Oakland. With an ERA approaching 4.50 at home this season, he presents a vulnerable target for a Rangers lineup that's been bolstered by trade deadline acquisitions.

Both teams were active at the trade deadline, with Seattle specifically adding offensive firepower in Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez to address their previously light-hitting lineup. These additions should help increase the Mariners' run production potential.

Saturday's extra-inning 6-4 affair suggests these teams are capable of putting runs on the board against each other. The Rangers have gone over the total in three of their last five games overall, indicating their offense is clicking as they push for a playoff spot.

With two teams battling for AL West supremacy and wild card positioning, expect an energetic, offense-focused finale to this critical series. The combination of Evans' recent struggles, deGrom's over trends, and improved lineups points strongly to this game surpassing the total.