The red-hot San Diego Padres look to complete a series sweep against the struggling St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday afternoon at Petco Park, riding an impressive six-game winning streak into the finale.
San Diego's dominant bullpen and resurgent offense have given them a clear edge throughout this series, while the Cardinals continue searching for answers after dropping five of their last six games.
With Andre Pallante facing Dylan Cease in a pitching matchup that heavily favors the home team, the Padres aim to strengthen their wild card position while St. Louis tries to salvage something from their disappointing road trip.
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals prediction: who will win?
For today's Padres vs Cardinals matchup, our predictive model gives the Padres a 70.67% chance of defeating the Cards.
San Diego Padres: 70.67% win probability
- Better overall record (61-50 compared to Cardinals' 56-56)
- Superior run prevention (422 runs allowed, 5th best in MLB)
- Excellent recent momentum (Won 4 of last 5 games with LWWWW form)
St. Louis Cardinals: 29.33% win probability
- Struggling on the road (even .500 record suggests inconsistent away performance)
- Recent slump (Lost 3 of last 5 games with WLLLW form)
- Weaker run differential (492 runs scored vs 501 allowed shows negative differential)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| San Diego Padres | St. Louis Cardinals | |
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San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals preview
The Padres look to complete the series sweep against the struggling Cardinals on Sunday, riding a six-game winning streak that has them firmly in playoff position as the NL's final wild card team.
St. Louis, which has dropped five of its last six contests, sends Andre Pallante (6-7, 4.62 ERA) to the mound looking to salvage the finale at Petco Park against San Diego's Dylan Cease (3-10, 4.79 ERA).
While Cease's record doesn't impress, his league-leading 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings makes him a constant threat to shut down opposing lineups.
The Cardinals' offense has been particularly anemic away from home, averaging just 4.16 runs per game on the road, and managed only one run on four hits in Friday's series opener.
San Diego, fortified by GM AJ Preller's aggressive deadline moves to strengthen both the pitching staff and lineup, boasts arguably baseball's best bullpen and seems poised to continue their hot streak.
Look for Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill, who each collected two hits in Friday's victory, to continue providing offensive spark for a Padres team that's closed to within 2.5 games of the Dodgers in the NL West race.
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals form
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals head to head
San Diego Padres
50%
St. Louis Cardinals
50%
Aug 3, 2025
San Diego Padres
5 : 8
St. Louis Cardinals
Aug 2, 2025
San Diego Padres
4 : 1
St. Louis Cardinals
Jul 27, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals
2 : 9
San Diego Padres
Jul 26, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals
1 : 3
San Diego Padres
Jul 25, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals
3 : 0
San Diego Padres
Jul 24, 2025
St. Louis Cardinals
9 : 7
San Diego Padres
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