The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners square off in a crucial AL West showdown on Sunday with ace Jacob deGrom (10-3, 2.55 ERA) facing Seattle's Logan Evans (4-4, 4.22 ERA) in the series finale at T-Mobile Park.
Both playoff hopefuls made significant moves at the MLB Trade Deadline, with Texas acquiring Merrill Kelly while Seattle added Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez to bolster their lineup.
With just one game separating these rivals in the standings after splitting the first two contests, Sunday's matchup could prove pivotal in the tight American League wild card race.
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers prediction: who will win?
For today's Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers matchup, our predictive model gives the Mariners a 51.67% chance of defeating the Rangers.
Seattle Mariners: 51.67% win probability
- Better overall record (59-53 compared to Rangers' 58-54)
- Home field advantage with strong offensive output (506 runs scored this season)
- Superior recent form with 3 wins in last 5 games compared to Rangers' 2 wins
Texas Rangers: 48.33% win probability
- Offensive inconsistency with fewer runs scored (461) compared to Mariners (506)
- Struggling on the road with recent form showing 3 losses in last 5 games
- Defensive vulnerability allowing 394 runs despite strong defensive record overall
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Seattle Mariners | Texas Rangers | |
---|---|---|
Moneyline |
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers preview
The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners wrap up their crucial three-game series on Sunday with playoff implications hanging in the balance after splitting the first two contests in dramatic fashion.
With just one game separating these AL West rivals in the standings, Seattle aims to defend its narrow division lead while Texas looks to pull even in what's become a genuine arms race after both clubs made significant deadline acquisitions.
Sunday's pitching matchup features a compelling contrast between Rangers' ace Jacob deGrom (10-3, 2.55 ERA), who has rediscovered his dominant pre-injury form, and Mariners' developing right-hander Logan Evans (4-4, 4.22 ERA), whose home splits (2-0, 2.60 ERA at T-Mobile Park) suggest he's far more comfortable in Seattle.
The Mariners' recent offensive reinforcements in Josh Naylor and former Mariner Eugenio Suarez will be tested against deGrom, who has been particularly stingy on the road this season with a 4-1 record.
While Seattle's strikeout-prone lineup presents challenges against an elite arm like deGrom's, the Rangers have watched their ace's recent starts trend toward higher-scoring affairs, with the over hitting in four of his last five outings.
Sunday's finale could ultimately shape the AL West race and wild card picture, with both teams demonstrating through their deadline moves that they believe a deep October run is within reach.
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers form


Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers head to head

Seattle Mariners
67%

Texas Rangers
33%
Aug 2, 2025
Seattle Mariners
4 : 6
Texas Rangers
Aug 2, 2025
Seattle Mariners
4 : 3
Texas Rangers
Aug 1, 2025
Seattle Mariners
6 : 0
Texas Rangers
Jun 29, 2025
Texas Rangers
4 : 6
Seattle Mariners
Jun 28, 2025
Texas Rangers
3 : 2
Seattle Mariners
Jun 28, 2025
Texas Rangers
6 : 7
Seattle Mariners
Betting on the MLB?
Sporting Post is your trusted hub for MLB betting coverage. We break down expert MLB predictions and deliver today’s MLB best bets with clear, data-driven analysis. Want secure and reliable options? Explore our top picks for MLB betting sites.