The New York Mets (63-48) will look to extend their NL East lead when they host the Cleveland Guardians (56-54) at Citi Field on Monday night, with Sean Manaea (1-1, 2.08 ERA) facing off against Slade Cecconi (5-4, 3.77 ERA).
New York enters the contest having won seven of their last ten meetings against Cleveland and will aim to capitalize on their strong home form, where they've won five of their last six games.
The Guardians, sitting eight games behind Detroit in the AL Central, come in with momentum after consecutive series wins over Colorado and Minnesota and will test a Mets pitching staff that ranks fourth in MLB with a 3.59 ERA.
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians matchup, our predictive model gives the Mets a 56.33% chance of defeating the Guardians.
New York Mets: 56.33% win probability
- Strong offensive output (492 runs scored, 5th best in National League)
- Solid run prevention (452 runs allowed, 3rd best in NL East)
- Home field advantage with a 0.563 winning percentage (63-49 overall record)
Cleveland Guardians: 43.67% win probability
- Below-average offense (436 runs scored ranks 11th in the American League)
- Negative run differential (-28 runs on the season)
- Recent inconsistency despite 4-1 streak (8th place overall in AL standings)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
New York Mets | Cleveland Guardians | |
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New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians preview
The Mets will look to extend their slim NL East lead when they host the Guardians at Citi Field in a compelling interleague matchup Monday night.
New York's pitching staff, boasting the fourth-best ERA in baseball, sends Sean Manaea to the mound, who has been stellar lately, surrendering just three runs across his last three starts.
Cleveland counters with right-hander Slade Cecconi, who has struggled on the road recently, allowing 11 runs in his last three away outings.
The Guardians, eight games behind Detroit in the AL Central, desperately need to spark their offense that ranks near the bottom of MLB in batting average (.228) and runs per game (3.93).
For the Mets, Pete Alonso (86 RBI) and Juan Soto (25 HR) continue to anchor a lineup that's won five of their last six home games and has historically dominated this matchup, going 7-3 in their last ten against Cleveland.
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians form


New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians head to head

New York Mets
33%

Cleveland Guardians
67%
May 22, 2024
Cleveland Guardians
6 : 3
New York Mets
May 21, 2024
Cleveland Guardians
7 : 6
New York Mets
May 20, 2024
Cleveland Guardians
3 : 1
New York Mets
May 21, 2023
New York Mets
2 : 1
Cleveland Guardians
May 21, 2023
New York Mets
5 : 4
Cleveland Guardians
May 19, 2023
New York Mets
10 : 9
Cleveland Guardians
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